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Difficulty: MediumAssumptions in Causal Arguments

Match each causal argument below to the specific category of necessary assumption it fundamentally relies upon.

  • Following a new city public relations campaign, local tourism rose by 15 percent. The mayor concluded that the campaign caused the increase in tourism.Assumes that no other independent factor, such as a favorable currency exchange rate, caused the observed effect.
  • A study shows that individuals who exercise regularly are more likely to report feeling happy. Researchers conclude that exercise causes an increase in happiness.Assumes that the proposed effect is not actually responsible for the proposed cause (e.g., feeling happy makes one more likely to exercise).
  • Data reveals that months with high ice cream sales also experience high drowning rates. A report concludes that eating ice cream increases the risk of drowning.Assumes that a single third variable, such as hot summer weather, is not independently causing both of the correlated phenomena.
  • Patients taking a new experimental supplement recovered from the flu in exactly five days. The creators claim that the supplement cures the flu.Assumes that the effect would not have occurred in the absence of the proposed cause (e.g., the flu would not have resolved in five days naturally).

Answer

The PR campaign argument matches with eliminating alternate causes. The exercise argument matches with eliminating reverse causality. The ice cream argument matches with eliminating a third-variable common cause. The flu supplement argument matches with establishing a control baseline.
Each argument precisely demonstrates a classic causal reasoning gap. The PR campaign relies on eliminating alternate causes for a subsequent event. The exercise study relies on eliminating reverse causality. The ice cream correlation relies on eliminating a third shared cause. The flu remedy relies on assuming the effect wouldn't occur naturally.

Step-by-Step Solution

1
Analyze the public relations argument to identify its specific logical leap.
The argument assumes that because the campaign preceded the tourism increase, it caused it. It matches the assumption that no other independent factor caused the effect.
Chronological arguments typically require ruling out alternate events occurring at the same time.
2
Analyze the exercise and happiness argument.
The argument jumps from a correlation between two states of being to a specific causal direction. It matches the assumption that the effect (happiness) did not cause the cause (exercise).
When two traits exist simultaneously, the causal relationship could logically go in either direction, requiring the assumption that reverse causality is false.
3
Analyze the ice cream and drowning argument.
The argument connects two unrelated events occurring at the same time. It matches the assumption that a third variable does not cause both.
When two entirely distinct phenomena correlate, a common cause (like weather) is the most likely alternative explanation that must be assumed away.
4
Analyze the flu supplement argument.
The argument notes an outcome after an action without a comparison. It matches the assumption that the flu would not have resolved naturally in the same timeframe.
Arguments about medical or temporal interventions must assume a baseline where the intervention's absence leads to a different outcome.

Key Concept

Assumptions in Causal Arguments
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Assumptions in Causal Arguments

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