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Difficulty: HardCorrelation vs. Causation

Agricultural researchers recently noted a strong statistical correlation in the region of Valesia over the last decade: during the years when farmers planted the highest percentage of the newly developed 'Sun-Yield' wheat variety, the region also experienced the most severe outbreaks of the locust plague. The researchers concluded that the unique biological makeup of the Sun-Yield wheat must be attracting the locusts to the region.

Which of the following, if true, most effectively demonstrates that the researchers' conclusion is flawed? (Select all that apply.)

  1. Farmers in Valesia are advised by meteorologists to plant Sun-Yield wheat only during years when prolonged droughts are forecasted, and prolonged droughts are known to be the primary environmental trigger for mass locust hatchings.Answer
  2. Valesian farmers typically choose to plant Sun-Yield wheat only after observing unusually high numbers of locust larvae in their soil during the early spring, since Sun-Yield is uniquely capable of surviving a locust infestation.Answer
  3. C
    During the years with the most severe locust plagues, the total agricultural revenue generated by Valesia was significantly lower than the average revenue of the preceding decade.
  4. D
    In regions immediately neighboring Valesia where Sun-Yield wheat has never been introduced, severe locust outbreaks have been completely absent for the entirety of the last decade.
  5. E
    The researchers take for granted that a high percentage of farmers electing to plant Sun-Yield wheat necessarily translates to a proportionately large total number of acres being planted with that variety.

Answer

The correct answers are the option regarding prolonged droughts acting as a trigger for both events, and the option regarding farmers planting the wheat defensively after observing locust larvae.
The correct answers directly expose the flaw of assuming causation from correlation by providing alternative causal explanations for the observed data. One correct option demonstrates a third, common cause (prolonged droughts) that independently leads to both the increased planting of the wheat and the locust outbreaks. The other correct option demonstrates reverse causality, showing that the anticipated presence of locusts actually causes the farmers to plant the specific wheat variety as a defensive measure, completely undermining the claim that the wheat attracts the locusts.

Step-by-Step Solution

1
Analyze the argument's structure to identify the premises and the main conclusion.
Premise: A high percentage of Sun-Yield wheat correlates with severe locust plagues. Conclusion: The biological makeup of Sun-Yield wheat causes the locusts to be attracted to the region.
Understanding the components of the argument is necessary to evaluate its logical soundness and identify vulnerabilities.
2
Identify the logical flaw committed in moving from the premises to the conclusion.
The argument assumes that a statistical correlation implies a direct causal relationship, ignoring alternative explanations for the correlation.
Recognizing the flaw (Correlation vs. Causation) dictates what kind of evidence will weaken the conclusion.
3
Evaluate the answer choices to find those that exploit this specific flaw by providing valid alternative explanations.
Two options successfully weaken the argument: one provides a third common cause (droughts), and the other establishes reverse causality (locusts cause the planting of the wheat).
Valid correct answers in this context must directly address the erroneous causal leap rather than introducing irrelevant information or strengthening the argument.

Key Concept

Correlation vs. Causation
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Topics

Correlation vs. Causation

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