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Difficulty: HardWeaken

Historian: The rapid population growth in the Aethelian Valley during the 11th century was almost certainly driven by the introduction of the heavy iron plow. Prior to its introduction in 1012, the valley's population had been stagnant for over two centuries. By 1050, the population had nearly doubled. The heavy plow allowed farmers to cultivate the dense, clay-rich soils of the valley floor, significantly increasing the total agricultural yield and thus supporting a much larger population.

Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the historian's argument?

  1. A
    Neighboring valleys with similar climate conditions that did not adopt the heavy plow experienced no significant population growth during the 11th century.
  2. In 1012, a devastating conflict in a neighboring kingdom caused a massive influx of refugees to permanently resettle in the Aethelian Valley, bringing the heavy plow technology with them.Answer
  3. C
    Between 1012 and 1050, the percentage of the valley's population engaged directly in farming decreased, even though the absolute number of farmers grew.
  4. D
    Contemporary taxation records demonstrate that the total agricultural yield in the valley did not actually increase at any point during the 11th century.
  5. E
    The heavy iron plow was adopted much earlier in several distant empires, which utilized different crop rotation methods than the Aethelian Valley.

Answer

The statement detailing a massive influx of refugees in 1012 who brought the plow with them most seriously weakens the argument.
This option weakens the argument by introducing a compelling third variable: a massive influx of refugees. If tens of thousands of refugees settled in the valley in 1012, this immigration wave serves as a more direct alternative cause for the population doubling by 1050. Furthermore, because these refugees brought the plow with them, it explains why the plow's arrival correlated perfectly with the population boom, completely dismantling the historian's claim that the plow itself drove the population growth via agricultural yield.

Step-by-Step Solution

1
Analyze the stimulus to identify the core argument structure.
Conclusion: The heavy iron plow caused the rapid population growth. Premises: Population was stagnant before the plow's arrival in 1012; population doubled by 1050; the plow increased agricultural yield.
Understanding the causal claim is necessary to evaluate which piece of new evidence would most effectively undermine it.
2
Identify the primary vulnerability in the historian's reasoning.
The historian assumes that because the plow's introduction preceded the population growth, it must have caused it (correlation to causation).
Recognizing a causal flaw directs the search for an answer choice that provides an alternative cause, reverse causation, or a third variable.
3
Evaluate the answer choices against the identified vulnerability.
The correct option reveals that an influx of refugees concurrently caused the population jump and introduced the plow, severing the historian's causal link.
An effective alternative cause must comprehensively explain the observed phenomenon without relying on the author's stated mechanism.

Key Concept

Weakening Causal Arguments
Estimated Time:2m 0s
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Topics

Weaken

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