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Difficulty: HardNecessary Assumption

Agricultural Scientist: To combat devastating spongy moth infestations in commercial apple orchards, researchers developed a synthetic pheromone that completely masks the natural mating scent of female moths, preventing males from locating them. Although this pheromone degrades rapidly and requires costly weekly applications throughout the breeding season—unlike traditional broad-spectrum chemical pesticides which require only a single, inexpensive annual spray—orchard owners who transition exclusively to the synthetic pheromone will ultimately see higher profit margins.

Which of the following are assumptions on which the agricultural scientist's argument depends? (Select all that apply.)

  1. The traditional broad-spectrum chemical pesticides do not prevent spongy moth crop damage as effectively as the synthetic pheromone does.Answer
  2. The apple orchards' spongy moth infestations are not primarily sustained by female moths that have already mated in neighboring untreated areas before migrating into the orchards.Answer
  3. C
    The synthetic pheromone has absolutely no negative side effects on the biological development of the apple trees.
  4. D
    Consumers are willing to pay a premium price for apples grown without the use of traditional broad-spectrum chemical pesticides.
  5. E
    The rapid degradation of the synthetic pheromone in the orchards is primarily caused by prolonged exposure to direct sunlight.

Answer

The argument relies on two necessary assumptions: that traditional pesticides are less effective than the pheromone at preventing damage, and that infestations are not primarily caused by already-mated females migrating into the orchards.
Both correct statements bridge critical gaps in the author's reasoning. First, for a more expensive product to generate higher profits, it must offset its costs with superior performance; if traditional pesticides worked just as well, the cheaper option would be more profitable. Second, the pheromone specifically targets the mating process; if the pest population is sustained by insects that have already mated elsewhere, the pheromone's specific mechanism is useless, and the investment is wasted.

Step-by-Step Solution

1
Analyze the argument's structure to identify the premises and the main conclusion.
Premises: Pheromone stops mating; pheromone is more expensive to apply than traditional pesticide. Conclusion: Transitioning exclusively to the pheromone will yield higher profit margins.
Understanding the gap between the evidence (high cost, stops mating) and the conclusion (higher profit) reveals what must be assumed.
2
Evaluate candidate assumptions using the Negation Test.
Negating the option regarding traditional pesticide effectiveness means traditional pesticides are equally or more effective. Since they are also cheaper, the conclusion of higher profits from the pheromone is destroyed. Negating the option regarding migrating females means already-mated females sustain the infestation. If so, preventing mating locally is useless, destroying the conclusion.
A valid Necessary Assumption must pass the Negation Test: its logical opposite must invalidate the author's argument.
3
Eliminate choices that are too extreme or out of scope.
Options claiming 'absolutely no negative side effects' or introducing 'premium consumer prices' are eliminated because the argument can still survive even if these statements are false.
Necessary assumptions represent the minimum requirements for the argument to function, not statements that just make the conclusion highly likely or better.

Key Concept

Evaluating necessary assumptions by recognizing missing links in economic reasoning and applying the Negation Test to rule out alternate causes of failure.
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Topics

Necessary Assumption

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