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Difficulty: MediumFlaw in the Reasoning

Traffic Commissioner: Our recent analysis of commuting habits revealed a striking pattern: residents who frequently utilize the newly constructed light rail system report significantly higher overall life satisfaction than those who commute by car. Furthermore, the light rail commuters experienced a 20%20\% lower rate of tardiness to work over the past year. This demonstrates that using the light rail system directly improves residents' life satisfaction and punctuality.

Which of the following most accurately describes a flaw in the traffic commissioner's reasoning?

  1. It presumes that a causal relationship exists based solely on an observed correlation between two phenomena.Answer
  2. B
    It confuses a condition that is sufficient to improve punctuality with a condition that is necessary to do so.
  3. C
    It takes a claim about a relative percentage decrease to be a claim about an absolute numerical quantity.
  4. D
    It presumes that what is true of individual commuters must also be true of the city's transit system as a whole.
  5. E
    It illicitly shifts the meaning of the concept of punctuality between the premise and the conclusion.

Answer

The argument incorrectly assumes that a causal relationship exists based solely on an observed correlation between two phenomena.
The correct answer identifies the classic correlation-to-causation fallacy. The traffic commissioner observes that utilizing the light rail is associated with higher life satisfaction and punctuality. However, the commissioner ignores alternative explanations, such as reverse causation (people who are already punctual and satisfied choose to take the light rail) or a third common cause (a certain type of flexible, low-stress job allows for both). Because the author makes a definitive causal claim based purely on this association, this option correctly diagnoses the vulnerability.

Step-by-Step Solution

1
Identify the premises and the main conclusion of the argument.
Premise: Light rail users have higher life satisfaction and lower tardiness. Conclusion: Using the light rail causes these improvements.
Separating the evidence from the conclusion is necessary to see how the author is attempting to prove their point.
2
Evaluate the logical gap between the evidence provided and the claim being made.
The evidence only shows that two things happen together (correlation). The conclusion makes a definitive statement that one causes the other (causation).
Identifying missing information or unwarranted logical leaps reveals the core flaw in the argument.
3
Select the option that abstractly describes this specific logical leap.
The correct option points out that the argument treats a mere association as proof of a causal relationship.
The correct answer must accurately describe what the author did wrong without introducing outside information.

Key Concept

Correlation vs. Causation Flaw
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Topics

Flaw in the Reasoning

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