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To alleviate severe traffic congestion, the metropolitan government of Meridia implemented a 'congestion charge'—a substantial toll levied on any vehicle entering the central business district during designated peak commuting hours. One year after the policy's implementation, the total volume of vehicles entering the district during these peak hours had decreased by 25 percent. City officials declared the policy a resounding success. However, critics point out that during the same year, a severe national economic downturn caused a 25 percent drop in office employment within Meridia's central business district. The critics argue that the economic downturn, not the congestion charge, was responsible for the traffic reduction. The city officials reject this criticism, maintaining that the congestion charge was indeed the primary driver of the decreased peak-hour traffic.

Which of the following, if true, provides the strongest support for the city officials' position?

  1. A
    In neighboring metropolitan areas that were similarly affected by the national economic downturn but did not introduce any congestion pricing, peak-hour vehicle traffic declined by a comparable percentage.
  2. B
    Some of the office workers who lost their employment in the central business district during the economic downturn had previously commuted to work exclusively via the city's underground rail network.
  3. Following the implementation of the charge, there was a substantial increase in the volume of vehicle traffic entering the central business district during the thirty minutes immediately preceding and the thirty minutes immediately following the designated peak hours.Answer
  4. D
    According to independent economic audits, the vast majority of the permanent job losses attributed to the national economic downturn actually occurred in suburban manufacturing districts rather than in the central business district.
  5. E
    The 25 percent reduction in peak-hour traffic volume correlates strongly with a corresponding 25 percent decrease in vehicular emissions measured within the central business district over the same period.

Answer

The correct answer is the option stating that there was a substantial increase in vehicle traffic just outside the designated peak hours.
The core logical task is to isolate the true cause of the 25 percent traffic reduction: the congestion charge (as officials claim) or the economic downturn (as critics claim). The correct answer must provide evidence that supports the toll as the active mechanism. If the economic downturn were the primary cause, the unemployed individuals would simply cease their daily commute, leading to a general reduction in morning and evening traffic. However, the correct choice demonstrates a sharp increase in traffic volume in the thirty-minute windows immediately outside the tolled peak hours. This specific behavioral shift—adjusting travel times to avoid a penalty—is a direct fingerprint of the congestion charge. It strongly supports the officials' position by demonstrating that the toll is actively influencing commuter behavior, rather than commuters simply disappearing due to job loss.

Step-by-Step Solution

1
Identify the conclusion being supported.
The city officials' position is that the congestion charge, not the economic downturn, was the primary driver of the decreased peak-hour traffic.
Before evaluating options, you must isolate the exact claim that needs strengthening.
2
Analyze the logical gap.
The argument presents two concurrent phenomena (the toll and the downturn) that could both cause a reduction in traffic.
To strengthen the officials' claim, we must find evidence that isolates the toll as the active cause and rules out the downturn.
3
Determine the behavioral implications of each cause.
If the downturn caused the drop, unemployed commuters would simply stop driving to the district entirely. If the toll caused the drop, commuters would still need to travel but would shift their schedules to avoid the penalty.
Finding a distinct 'fingerprint' for one of the causes allows us to definitively choose between them.
4
Evaluate the options against this framework.
The option showing a traffic spike in the thirty minutes before and after the peak hours perfectly matches the behavioral fingerprint of a toll.
This definitively proves that the toll is actively influencing commuter behavior, rather than commuters simply disappearing due to job loss.

Key Concept

Isolating Causal Variables
Estimated Time:2m 30s
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