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Zorluk: OrtaEvaluating Argument Validity and Test of Variance

A municipal water authority plans to install automated acoustic leak detectors along its primary underground distribution pipeline network. City officials calculate that detecting subterranean micro-leaks early will save millions of gallons of treated water annually, thereby reducing overall water purification and pumping costs by significantly more than the installation and maintenance expense of the sensors. Therefore, city officials conclude that implementing this sensor network will increase the municipal water utility's net annual operating budget surplus.

Which of the following would it be most useful to establish in order to evaluate the validity of the argument?

  1. A
    Whether neighboring municipal water authorities plan to adopt similar automated acoustic leak-detection technologies within the next decade.
  2. B
    Whether residential customers in the municipality consume significantly less water per capita than industrial and commercial entities do.
  3. Whether subterranean vibrations from surface vehicle traffic frequently trigger false alarm signals in the sensors that require manual on-site inspection by technicians.Cevap
  4. D
    Whether the total revenue generated from residential water tariffs increased over the preceding fiscal year.
  5. E
    Whether the current water purification facilities operated by the municipality are performing at full capacity during peak summer months.

Cevap

Determining whether ambient traffic vibrations trigger frequent false alarms that require costly manual inspections by utility technicians is the most useful factor for evaluating the argument's validity.
The correct answer provides a critical unknown operational variable. If subterranean traffic vibrations cause frequent false positives, utility technicians must be dispatched to manually verify non-existent leaks, introducing substantial unanticipated labor and inspection costs. If these secondary costs exceed the net purification and pumping savings, the net operating budget surplus will decrease rather than increase. Conversely, if false alarms rarely occur, the projected financial surplus remains intact. Because opposite answers to this question produce opposite impacts on the viability of the plan, it is the most decisive factor for evaluating the argument's validity.

Adım Adım Çözüm

1
Deconstruct the argument structure into premises and conclusion
Premise: Acoustic sensors save water, cutting purification/pumping costs by an amount greater than sensor purchase/maintenance cost. Conclusion: Implementing the sensor network will increase the utility's net annual operating budget surplus.
Evaluating validity requires identifying the logical gap between the stated cost savings and the final net budget outcome.
2
Identify the unstated assumption in the financial projection
The argument assumes that sensor purchase and routine maintenance are the only significant new costs introduced by the program.
If hidden or auxiliary operational costs arise from operating the system, total costs might exceed savings.
3
Apply the Test of Variance to evaluate potential evaluation questions
Testing extreme outcomes for false alarm inspection costs: If YES (false alarms are frequent and expensive to inspect), total costs rise and net surplus drops (weakens argument). If NO (false alarms are rare/inexpensive), net surplus increases as projected (strengthens argument).
A valid evaluation criteria must produce opposite impacts on the argument's conclusion when answered at opposite extreme ends of the spectrum.

Anahtar Kavram

Evaluating Argument Validity & Test of Variance
Tahmini Süre:1m 40s
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Evaluating Argument Validity and Test of Variance

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