Evaluating Argument Validity and Test of Variance

A commercial shipping line plans to apply a newly developed acoustic barnacle-repellent coating to the hulls of all its ocean-going container ships. Preliminary testing indicates that by preventing marine biofouling, the coating reduces hydrodynamic drag and decreases annual fuel consumption per vessel by 12 percent. Based on these fuel savings, management concludes that the financial savings from decreased fuel consumption will fully offset the high initial cost of purchasing and applying the coating within two years. Which of the following inquiries would be most useful to evaluate the validity of management's conclusion?

A local coffee shop owner plans to increase total monthly profits by raising the price of all specialty espresso drinks by 10 percent. The owner reasons that because demand for specialty drinks has remained steady over the past year, customers will continue to buy the exact same quantity of drinks despite the price increase.

Which of the following would be most useful to evaluate the validity of the coffee shop owner's argument?

Consider the following argument: A regional hospital system plans to replace all traditional brass door handles across its facilities with handles coated in a novel antimicrobial polymer coating in order to reduce patient infection rates. Hospital administrators reason that because laboratory tests demonstrate the polymer kills 99 percent of surface bacteria within fifteen minutes of contact, installing these coated handles will significantly decrease the incidence of hospital-acquired infections.

True or False: Determining whether the routine chemical cleaning solutions used by hospital sanitation staff rapidly degrade the antimicrobial efficacy of the polymer coating upon contact constitutes a valid application of the Test of Variance for evaluating the validity of the administrators' argument.

In GMAT Critical Reasoning, evaluating the validity of an argument using the Test of Variance requires that applying two opposite extreme answers to a evaluation question (such as 'yes' and 'no') produces opposite impacts on the strength of the conclusion.

A regional agricultural board plans to encourage commercial fruit orchard operators to replace conventional synthetic pesticide sprays with a newly developed biological control agent consisting of predatory mites. Because extensive field trials demonstrated that these predatory mites effectively eliminate target pest insects without producing any chemical runoff into adjacent waterways, board officials claim that widespread adoption of the mites will result in a significant net reduction of toxic chemical contamination in the region's river ecosystem. Which of the following would be most useful to investigate in order to evaluate the validity of the agricultural board's claim?

A commercial airline plans to replace its current regional fleet with newer aircraft models that consume 25 percent less fuel per seat-mile, maintaining that this fleet transition will lower the airline's overall annual operating expenses. Consider the following assertion: 'Determining whether global jet fuel prices will rise or fall over the next five years represents a valid application of the Test of Variance to evaluate the argument's conclusion.' Is this assertion true or false?

To reduce urban air pollution and traffic congestion, the municipality of Ardenville plans to construct a light-rail line connecting its dense outer suburbs to the commercial downtown core. City planners argue that because traveling by light rail generates significantly fewer carbon emissions per passenger-mile than driving a private automobile, building the light-rail system will lead to a net decrease in Ardenville's total commuter-related carbon emissions over the next decade.

Which of the following would it be most useful to determine in evaluating the validity of the city planners' argument?

A municipal public transit authority plans to address its operational deficit by installing automated turnstile gates at all underground metro stations and laying off all human ticket inspectors. The authority's financial analysts claim that because the annual maintenance cost of the automated gates will be significantly less than the total annual salaries of the inspectors, implementing this plan is guaranteed to decrease the authority's net operating deficit in its first year. Which of the following would it be most useful to determine in order to evaluate the validity of the financial analysts' conclusion?

Consider the following argument: An agricultural biotechnology firm plans to market a automated seed-analysis device to commercial grain farmers. The firm predicts that launching this device will significantly increase its annual operating profits because the device reduces sample processing time by 50 percent, allowing farmers to test twice as many seeds in a single day without incurring additional labor costs.

Evaluating the following statement: Determining whether commercial grain farmers currently experience a bottleneck in seed testing that restricts their total volume of seed purchases is a relevant test of variance for evaluating the validity of the firm's profit prediction.

A municipal water authority plans to install automated acoustic leak detectors along its primary underground distribution pipeline network. City officials calculate that detecting subterranean micro-leaks early will save millions of gallons of treated water annually, thereby reducing overall water purification and pumping costs by significantly more than the installation and maintenance expense of the sensors. Therefore, city officials conclude that implementing this sensor network will increase the municipal water utility's net annual operating budget surplus.

Which of the following would it be most useful to establish in order to evaluate the validity of the argument?

Consider the following business plan argument:

A commercial bakery plans to replace standard white flour with a newly developed high-fiber wheat flour across all its bread product lines. The bakery's management reasons that because health-conscious consumers are willing to pay a 25% premium for high-fiber products, making this change will significantly boost the company's net profits over the coming year.

Match each evaluation question regarding the argument's validity on the left with the correct variance analysis outcome on the right.

A wildlife conservation agency plans to introduce a native predatory bird, the peregrine falcon, into a coastal metropolitan area to control the rapidly growing population of feral pigeons. Conservationists argue that because feral pigeons make up over 80 percent of the falcon's natural diet in comparable habitats, this introduction will significantly reduce the city's pigeon population without threatening indigenous songbird species.

Which of the following questions would be most useful to evaluate the validity of the conservationists' argument?