A local coffee shop recently introduced a loyalty reward card system, offering customers a free drink after every ten drinks purchased. Since introducing the card system three months ago, the coffee shop's overall sales volume has increased by 15 percent. The shop owner concludes that the new loyalty reward card system is directly responsible for this increase in sales.
Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the shop owner's conclusion?
- Two months ago, a major corporate office building directly across the street opened, bringing thousands of new employees to the block daily.Cevap
- BSurveys indicate that customers who enrolled in the loyalty card program visited the coffee shop more frequently than they had prior to enrollment.
- CCoffee shops operating in neighboring towns reported similar sales increases after redesigning their interior seating arrangements.
- DThe cost of printing the plastic loyalty cards slightly reduced the coffee shop's overall profit margin on promotional drinks.
- EThe coffee shop's total sales volume had remained completely unchanged during the six months prior to the introduction of the card program.
Cevap
The argument is most weakened by the finding that a major corporate office building directly across the street opened two months ago, bringing thousands of new employees to the block daily.
The argument commits a classic correlation-to-causation leap, assuming that because sales increased after the loyalty card was introduced, the loyalty card must have caused the increase. Pointing out that a major office complex opened across the street provides a strong alternative explanation for the increased sales volume, thereby undermining the conclusion that the loyalty card was the primary cause.
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Anahtar Kavram
Alternative Explanation in Causal Reasoning