A municipal water authority recently installed smart digital water meters across a high-income residential neighborhood in District North. Over the six months following the installation, average monthly household water consumption in District North declined by 12 percent compared to the preceding year. Satisfied with these results, the authority's director concluded that installing smart digital water meters across all municipal districts will lead to a citywide reduction in household water usage. Which of the following points to a flaw in the director's reasoning?
- It presumes that findings from a sample drawn from a specific demographic neighborhood can be generalized to all municipal districts.Cevap
- BIt assumes that the observed decrease in household water consumption was what prompted the municipal authority to install digital meters.
- CIt infers that installing smart digital meters will completely eliminate water supply shortages across surrounding rural agricultural regions.
- DIt fails to account for the possibility that installing smart digital meters will cause household water consumption to increase dramatically.
- EIt treats a factor that is necessary for achieving citywide water conservation as though it were sufficient to guarantee such conservation.
Cevap
The argument incorrectly assumes that results obtained from a single, high-income residential neighborhood are representative of all municipal districts across the city.
The correct choice highlights the flaw in inductive generalization. The argument bases its broad citywide prediction on evidence collected from a single neighborhood characterized by specific socioeconomic conditions (high-income). Because District North is not representative of all municipal districts, the conclusion that all districts will experience a similar reduction is unwarranted.
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Anahtar Kavram
Unrepresentative Sample / Sampling Bias Flaw