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Zorluk: ZorIdentifying Logical Flaws and Reasoning Vulnerabilities

To bolster its regional commercial shipping sector, the port authority of City X recently instituted a substantial reduction in dockage fees for all international cargo vessels. Over the subsequent six months, the total volume of freight passing through the city's port increased by 25 percent. Based on this outcome, the port authority's director concluded that reducing dockage fees is a reliable strategy for any municipal port seeking to expand its international shipping volume.

The director's argument is most vulnerable to criticism on the grounds that it...

  1. infers a general causal principle for all municipal ports based on evidence from a single case that may not be representativeCevap
  2. B
    mistakes an effect for a cause by assuming that the increase in shipping volume led to the reduction in dockage fees
  3. C
    confuses a condition that is necessary for increasing shipping volume with a condition that is sufficient to guarantee it
  4. D
    draws an invalid structural analogy between international cargo shipping and domestic commercial transport
  5. E
    concludes that lowering dockage fees reduces total municipal revenues despite data demonstrating the opposite effect

Cevap

The argument is most vulnerable to criticism because it infers a general causal principle for all municipal ports based on evidence from a single case that may not be representative.
The correct answer accurately describes an unrepresentative sample flaw (hasty generalization). The director observes a positive outcome following a policy change in a single municipality over a brief six-month window and uses that limited evidence to endorse the policy as a universally reliable strategy for all municipal ports worldwide.

Adım Adım Çözüm

1
Analyze the Premise and Conclusion structure of the argument.
Premise: City X reduced dockage fees, and freight volume at City X's port increased by 25 percent over six months. Conclusion: Reducing dockage fees is a reliable strategy for ANY municipal port seeking to expand international shipping volume.
Identifying the gap between a specific premise (one port's six-month outcome) and a broad conclusion (all municipal ports) isolates the central reasoning vulnerability.
2
Evaluate the logical leap from a single case study to a universal rule.
The director assumes that what occurred in City X over a short period will hold true across all municipal ports, ignoring unique local economic conditions, geographic advantages, or concurrent macro-environmental factors.
Generalizing from an unrepresentative or single sample represents a classic inductive fallacy in Critical Reasoning.
3
Select the choice that accurately articulates this inductive sampling flaw.
The statement highlighting that a general principle is inferred from a single, potentially unrepresentative instance precisely matches the identified logical flaw.
Abstract descriptions of unrepresentative sample flaws are standard correct answers for GMAT argument evaluation items.

Anahtar Kavram

Identifying Hasty Generalization and Unrepresentative Sample Flaws
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Identifying Logical Flaws and Reasoning Vulnerabilities

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