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Zorluk: KolayWeakening Arguments

A bookstore chain recently added coffee cafes inside all of its retail locations to boost overall bookstore sales. During the twelve months following the installation of the cafes, total sales at these bookstores increased by 15 percent. The management concluded that adding the cafes was the primary cause of the increase in sales. Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the management's argument?

  1. During the same twelve-month period, the bookstore chain's primary regional competitor closed all of its stores, driving a large influx of new customers to remaining bookstores.Cevap
  2. B
    Bookstore customers who bought coffee at the new cafes spent significantly more time browsing book aisles than they had on previous visits.
  3. C
    The bookstore chain plans to expand its online delivery services to international markets within the next two years.
  4. D
    Several store managers initially expressed hesitation regarding the upfront equipment installation costs required for the cafes.
  5. E
    The price of specialty coffee beans increased moderately across the industry during the year after the cafes opened.

Cevap

The statement showing that a major regional competitor closed all stores during the same timeframe most seriously weakens the argument by providing an alternative cause for the increase in sales.
The correct answer weakens the argument by introducing an alternative explanation for the 15 percent increase in bookstore sales. If a major competitor closed all its stores during the exact same period, the sudden influx of displaced customers would account for the sales surge regardless of whether the cafes were added.

Adım Adım Çözüm

1
Identify the conclusion and premise of the argument.
Premise: Bookstores added cafes, and total sales rose by 15 percent over the next year. Conclusion: Adding the cafes caused the 15 percent sales increase.
Understanding the precise causal claim is essential for finding the flaw or assumption.
2
Identify the underlying unstated assumption.
The author assumes that no other external factor was responsible for the 15 percent increase in sales during that timeframe.
Causal arguments rely on the assumption that correlation implies causation and that alternative causes are absent.
3
Evaluate the options to find new information that breaks the causal connection.
The option noting the closure of the primary regional competitor introduces an independent, plausible alternative cause for the sudden rise in sales.
Demonstrating an alternative explanation directly undermines the conclusion that the cafes were the primary driver of growth.

Anahtar Kavram

Causal Reasoning and Alternative Explanations
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Konular

Weakening Arguments

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