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Zorluk: ZorWeakening Arguments

To combat severe peak-hour traffic congestion on the city's central highway, municipal planners plan to convert one of the four existing traffic lanes in each direction into a dedicated lane for high-speed express commuter buses. Planners estimate that the increased speed and reliability of these express buses will convince 20 percent of current private automobile commuters to switch to public transit, thereby significantly reducing overall highway traffic congestion during peak commuting hours.

Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the municipal planners' argument?

  1. A
    Recent municipal surveys indicate that over 30 percent of current automobile commuters would willingly switch to public transit if express travel times were guaranteed.
  2. Converting one of the four traffic lanes in each direction into a dedicated bus lane reduces the highway capacity for remaining private vehicles by 25 percent, exacerbating bottleneck delays for those vehicles.Cevap
  3. C
    The new high-speed express buses will produce slightly higher per-vehicle carbon emissions than the standard buses currently operating on city streets.
  4. D
    The operational maintenance costs for the express bus fleet will require an increase in municipal transit fares after the first year of service.
  5. E
    A portion of the ridership on the new express buses will consist of commuters who previously traveled during off-peak hours.

Cevap

The argument is most seriously weakened by the evidence that converting an existing lane reduces highway vehicle capacity for private automobiles by 25 percent, which exceeds the 20 percent reduction in vehicle volume and thus increases overall bottleneck delays.
The correct answer identifies a fatal flaw in the plan's mathematical trade-off. Converting 1 out of 4 lanes reduces capacity for general traffic by 25 percent (1/41/4). Even if 20 percent of automobile drivers switch to buses, the remaining 80 percent of traffic must fit into 75 percent of the original road capacity. As a result, congestion per available lane actually increases, directly refuting the claim that overall traffic congestion will decrease.

Adım Adım Çözüm

1
Identify the conclusion and underlying premises of the argument.
Premise: Converting 1 of 4 existing lanes to a dedicated bus lane will attract 20% of automobile commuters to express buses. Conclusion: Overall highway traffic congestion during peak hours will decrease significantly.
Understanding the precise link between premise (volume reduction) and conclusion (congestion reduction) reveals key unstated assumptions about highway capacity.
2
Identify the core unstated assumption.
The argument assumes that removing 20% of vehicle drivers will decrease congestion despite taking away 1 out of 4 general lanes (a 25% drop in general capacity).
A plan to reduce congestion by taking away existing road capacity fails if the reduction in road capacity exceeds the reduction in vehicle volume.
3
Evaluate the answer choices to find the statement that undermines this assumption.
The option pointing out that dedicated lane conversion cuts general traffic capacity by 25% demonstrates that remaining traffic will experience worse bottlenecking, directly counteracting the 20% volume drop.
Showing that net throughput capacity falls faster than demand volume invalidates the claim that traffic congestion will decrease.

Anahtar Kavram

Plan-to-Goal Feasibility & Capacity Offsets
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Konular

Weakening Arguments

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