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Zorluk: OrtaStrengthening Arguments

Agricultural researchers monitored tomato farms in a semi-arid region that adopted satellite-guided automated drip irrigation systems. Over three harvest seasons, farms utilizing the automated system reported a 25 percent reduction in water usage alongside a 15 percent increase in crop yields compared to their previous yields under manual drip irrigation. The researchers concluded that the automated system's precise real-time adjustments to soil moisture levels were directly responsible for the increased crop yields.

Which of the following, if true, most strengthens the researchers' argument?

  1. Tomato farms in the same region that maintained manual drip irrigation over the three harvest seasons saw no increase in crop yields despite experiencing identical weather patterns.Cevap
  2. B
    The automated drip system frequently miscalibrated moisture sensors during peak growth months, requiring farmers to perform manual adjustments to water delivery.
  3. C
    Farms that installed the automated system simultaneously switched to a newly developed high-yield hybrid tomato seed variety.
  4. D
    Global consumer demand for sustainably farmed produce grew substantially over the three harvest seasons analyzed in the study.
  5. E
    The initial financial investment required to install automated drip irrigation systems is typically recouped within five years through reduced water costs.

Cevap

The argument is most strengthened by the finding that neighboring tomato farms retaining manual drip irrigation experienced no yield increase under identical weather conditions.
The correct answer provides a control comparison. By establishing that farms in the same region using manual irrigation under identical weather conditions saw no yield increase, it rules out external factors like favorable weather or climate shifts, thereby strongly supporting the claim that the automated system was the cause of the increased yields.

Adım Adım Çözüm

1
Deconstruct the argument into premise and conclusion.
Premise: Farms using satellite-guided automated drip irrigation reduced water use by 25% and increased yield by 15% relative to their past manual drip baseline. Conclusion: The automated system's real-time soil moisture adjustments directly caused the yield increase.
Identifying the explicit causal claim is necessary to determine what evidence is required to reinforce it.
2
Identify potential vulnerabilities in the causal reasoning.
The argument assumes that no unobserved external factors (such as favorable weather, fertilizer improvements, or pest reduction) were responsible for the yield increase during those three seasons.
Strengthening a causal argument frequently involves providing a control group or ruling out plausible alternative causes.
3
Evaluate the choices to find the statement that eliminates alternative causes.
The observation that regional farms keeping manual systems experienced no yield increase under identical weather confirms that regional environmental factors alone do not explain the yield gains, isolating the automated system as the key variable.
Providing counterfactual evidence strengthens the probability that the author's stated cause is correct.

Anahtar Kavram

Strengthening Causal Claims via Control Groups and Alternative Cause Elimination
Tahmini Süre:1m 30s
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Strengthening Arguments

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