A recent study found that cities with higher per capita spending on public parks have significantly lower rates of stress-related illnesses. The mayor argues that building more parks will therefore improve public health. However, this reasoning is flawed. The study also revealed that cities with higher park spending possess higher average incomes, and higher income allows for better access to preventive healthcare. Therefore, the lower rates of stress-related illnesses are entirely due to higher incomes, and public parks provide no actual health benefits.
Which one of the following arguments exhibits a flawed pattern of reasoning most similar to that exhibited in the argument above?
- Data shows that people who drink green tea daily have a lower risk of heart disease. Nutritionists conclude that green tea prevents heart disease. Yet, daily green tea drinkers also tend to exercise regularly, which is known to strengthen the heart. Consequently, the reduced risk of heart disease is solely the result of regular exercise, and green tea provides no cardiovascular benefit.Cevap
- BSurveys indicate that individuals who own large houses are more likely to have high-paying jobs. Some economists claim that buying a large house motivates people to seek higher pay. But they ignore the fact that having a high-paying job is what provides the wealth necessary to purchase a large house. Therefore, the job causes the house purchase, not the reverse.
- CResearch shows a link between playing classical music for infants and early language development. Parents assume the music directly stimulates brain growth. However, parents who play classical music also tend to read to their infants more frequently, which aids language skills. Thus, reading is a major factor in the early language development of these infants.
- DRegions with high ice cream sales also report high numbers of drowning incidents. One might think eating ice cream causes cramping and subsequent drowning. However, both ice cream sales and swimming increase during hot weather. Therefore, the hot weather causes both the ice cream consumption and the drowning incidents.
- EObservational studies show that patients taking Medication X report fewer migraines. Doctors suspect Medication X cures migraines. However, in a controlled trial where patients were isolated from their usual dietary triggers, Medication X performed no better than a placebo. Therefore, Medication X does not actually cure migraines; it was the dietary changes that reduced the migraines in the observational studies.
Cevap
The argument about green tea and exercise perfectly parallels the flawed causal reasoning in the stimulus.
The correct answer accurately mirrors the specific flawed causal structure of the stimulus. It presents an initial correlation (green tea and lower heart disease risk), states a proposed causal claim, introduces a third variable (exercise) that is correlated with the first and causes the outcome, and then commits the exact same logical fallacy: assuming that this third variable is the EXCLUSIVE cause, thereby concluding that the original proposed cause has absolutely no effect.
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Parallel Causal Reasoning