University administrator: Our alumni donation rate has dropped by 15% since we replaced our quarterly printed alumni magazine with a monthly email newsletter. Therefore, to restore our alumni donation rate to its previous level, we must immediately return to sending the printed magazine.
Statement: To logically evaluate the validity of the administrator's argument, it is necessary to determine whether there has been a general economic downturn affecting the disposable income of alumni since the switch to the email newsletter.
Cevap: Cevap
Cevap
The statement is True.
The statement correctly identifies a piece of information that is crucial for evaluating the argument. The administrator observes a correlation (the format changed, and donations dropped) and assumes a causal relationship (the format change caused the drop). In causal arguments, discovering an alternate cause weakens the conclusion, while eliminating an alternate cause strengthens it. By applying the Variance Test, if an economic downturn did occur (Yes), the drop in donations is likely due to alumni having less disposable income, which severely weakens the claim that returning to print will fix the issue. If an economic downturn did not occur (No), this alternate cause is eliminated, strengthening the administrator's causal claim. Because polar opposite answers to the question yield opposite logical effects on the argument's validity, the statement is a necessary point of evaluation.
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Anahtar Kavram
Evaluate the Argument (Variance Test on Alternate Causes)