Read the argument below. Apply the Variance Test to evaluate the argument by matching the possible factual discoveries (left) to their logical impact on the agricultural economist's core conclusion (right).
Agricultural Economist: To combat declining yields of the traditional Zea corn crop, valley farmers are being encouraged to switch to a genetically modified variant, Zea-Max. Zea-Max is highly resistant to the region's most common pests, which routinely destroy a large portion of the harvest. Since pest damage is currently the primary cause of crop loss in the valley, adopting Zea-Max will undoubtedly lead to a significant increase in the farmers' overall annual profits.
- Discovery: Zea-Max requires significantly more expensive fertilizers than the traditional corn.Weakens the argument by introducing an unexpected production expense that could offset the financial benefit of pest resistance.
- Discovery: Zea-Max requires the exact same standard fertilizers as the traditional corn.Strengthens the argument by defending against the possibility of increased production expenses, solidifying the predicted profit margin.
- Discovery: Buyers pay significantly less per bushel for Zea-Max than for traditional corn.Weakens the argument by revealing that a lower selling price could counteract the financial gains from having a higher total crop yield.
- Discovery: Buyers pay the exact same price per bushel for Zea-Max as for traditional corn.Strengthens the argument by ruling out a potential drop in unit revenue, reinforcing the connection between higher yields and higher profits.
Cevap
The correct matching aligns discoveries that increase costs or decrease selling price with a weakening impact, and aligns discoveries that keep costs and prices stable with a strengthening impact.
A valid argument evaluation requires identifying the assumptions made to reach the core conclusion. Here, the agricultural economist concludes that higher crop yields (due to pest resistance) will inherently lead to higher profits. However, profit depends on both revenue and cost. Discoveries that increase costs (such as expensive fertilizers) or decrease revenue per unit (such as a lower market price) directly weaken the argument by attacking these unstated assumptions. Conversely, discoveries that confirm costs and prices remain stable strengthen the argument by shielding it from these potential vulnerabilities. Therefore, the discoveries match perfectly with their corresponding logical impacts.
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Variance Test in Evaluating Arguments