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Zorluk: KolayStrengthen

A local bakery recently replaced its conventional flour with organic flour for all its bread recipes. In the month following this change, the bakery's daily bread sales volume increased by 20 percent. The bakery's owner concludes that the new bread sells better because customers prefer the taste of organic flour over conventional flour.

Which of the following statements, if true, would most strengthen the bakery owner's argument? (Select all that apply)

  1. In blind taste tests, the bakery's customers consistently chose the bread made with organic flour over the bread made with conventional flour.Cevap
  2. During the month following the change, the bakery did not alter its prices, change its location, or run any new advertising campaigns.Cevap
  3. C
    Customers who regularly purchase organic products often do so because they believe organic farming is better for the environment.
  4. D
    Several competing bakeries that continued using conventional flour experienced a similar 20 percent increase in bread sales during the same month.
  5. E
    The owner's decision to switch to organic flour was initially opposed by several senior bakers who were concerned about the production costs.

Cevap

The statements that strengthen the argument are: (1) independent evidence showing a taste preference in blind tests, and (2) the elimination of alternative causes such as changes in price or advertising.
The argument concludes that a specific cause (taste preference for organic flour) led to a specific effect (increased sales). The first correct statement strengthens this by providing direct, independent evidence that the proposed mechanism (taste preference) actually exists. The second correct statement strengthens the argument by explicitly ruling out the most common alternative causes for an increase in retail sales (pricing, location, marketing), thereby making the author's proposed cause more likely to be the true one.

Adım Adım Çözüm

1
Identify the main conclusion and the premises.
Conclusion: Customers prefer the taste of organic flour. Premise: Bread sales increased by 20 percent after switching to organic flour.
Understanding the structure of the argument is essential to evaluating its logical gaps.
2
Identify the logical gap in the causal argument.
The owner assumes that the correlation between the new flour and increased sales is a direct causal relationship based specifically on taste, ignoring other potential factors.
Causal arguments on the LSAT are vulnerable to alternative causes, reverse causation, or coincidental trends.
3
Evaluate each option to see if it bridges the gap or supports the conclusion.
One option provides direct evidence of taste preference. Another option rules out alternative causes for the sales increase. Both strengthen the argument.
Strengthening a causal argument typically involves confirming the cause-and-effect relationship or eliminating alternative explanations.

Anahtar Kavram

To strengthen a causal argument, you must either provide direct evidence that validates the causal mechanism or rule out plausible alternative causes for the observed effect.
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