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Zorluk: OrtaFlaw in the Reasoning

Automotive Industry Analyst: Five years ago, the government introduced a subsidy to encourage the production of electric vehicles (EVs). Since then, the percentage of newly manufactured EVs that fail their initial quality assurance inspections has fallen from 12 percent to 4 percent. Therefore, the subsidy program has successfully decreased the total number of EVs failing these critical safety inspections.

Which one of the following most accurately describes a flaw in the analyst's reasoning?

  1. It overlooks the possibility that the overall production volume of electric vehicles has expanded enough to offset the lower failure rate.Cevap
  2. B
    It takes for granted that the government subsidy was the primary cause of the improved inspection pass rates.
  3. C
    It relies on a subtle shift in the meaning of the word 'successfully' from the premises to the conclusion.
  4. D
    It confuses a condition that is sufficient to prove the subsidy's success with a condition that is necessary for its success.
  5. E
    It fails to distinguish between the intermediate conclusion that the failure rate dropped and the main conclusion about the total number of vehicles.

Cevap

The correct answer is the option stating that the argument overlooks an expansion in the overall production volume.
The argument commits a classic proportion versus quantity error. It concludes that an absolute number has decreased (total EVs failing inspections) based entirely on evidence that a proportion has decreased (the percentage failing). If the total number of EVs manufactured has tripled, a 4 percent failure rate would yield a higher absolute number of failed inspections than a 12 percent rate did previously.

Adım Adım Çözüm

1
Identify the conclusion of the argument.
The conclusion is that the total number of EVs failing safety inspections has decreased.
Understanding the precise claim the author is making is the first step in evaluating reasoning.
2
Identify the premises supporting the conclusion.
The premise is that the percentage of newly manufactured EVs failing the inspection dropped from 12 percent to 4 percent.
We must isolate the evidence used to justify the conclusion.
3
Compare the nature of the premise to the nature of the conclusion.
The premise presents evidence about a proportion (percentage), while the conclusion makes a claim about an absolute number (total number).
A mismatch between the type of evidence provided and the claim made usually reveals the logical flaw.
4
Determine if the premise mathematically guarantees the conclusion.
It does not. If total EV production increased dramatically, 4 percent of a massive new total could be a larger absolute number than 12 percent of a smaller old total.
Testing the logic with hypothetical numbers confirms that a percentage drop does not guarantee a drop in absolute numbers.

Anahtar Kavram

Percentage vs. Number Flaw
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Konular

Flaw in the Reasoning

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