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Zorluk: OrtaFlaw in the Reasoning

Retail Executive: Our new digital advertising strategy, implemented at the beginning of last year, has been a resounding success in boosting our online sales. In the year before the strategy was implemented, online sales accounted for just 15 percent of our total revenue. Last year, however, online sales made up a full 35 percent of our total revenue. It is clear that the new strategy brought in significantly more online revenue than we generated previously.

Which of the following most accurately describes a flaw in the retail executive's reasoning?

  1. The argument assumes that a rise in the percentage of a whole guarantees a rise in the absolute amount of that part.Cevap
  2. B
    The executive concludes that the marketing campaign caused the shift in revenue simply because the campaign preceded the shift.
  3. C
    The reasoning depends on a shifting definition of the term 'revenue' between the premises and the conclusion.
  4. D
    The argument confuses a condition that guarantees an increase in online sales with a condition that is necessary for such an increase.
  5. E
    The executive mischaracterizes a factual premise about the percentage of online revenue as the primary conclusion of the argument.

Cevap

The argument assumes that a rise in the percentage of a whole guarantees a rise in the absolute amount of that part.
The executive's argument concludes that the absolute amount of online revenue increased, basing this claim entirely on the premise that the percentage of total revenue derived from online sales increased. However, a percentage is a relative figure. If the company's total revenue dropped significantly from the previous year to last year, a 35 percent share of last year's total could easily represent less actual money than a 15 percent share of the previous year's total. The correct choice identifies this flawed leap from proportion to absolute quantity.

Adım Adım Çözüm

1
Identify the main conclusion of the executive's argument.
The conclusion is that the new strategy 'brought in significantly more online revenue than we generated previously' (a claim about an absolute amount of money).
Understanding the exact nature of the conclusion is the first step in evaluating whether the premises adequately support it.
2
Analyze the premises provided as evidence for the conclusion.
The premises state that the proportion of total revenue coming from online sales increased from 15 percent to 35 percent.
Identifying the premises allows us to pinpoint the gap between the evidence provided and the conclusion drawn.
3
Evaluate the logical relationship between the premises and the conclusion to find the flaw.
The premises only provide relative data (percentages), while the conclusion makes a definitive claim about an absolute number. If the company's total overall revenue plummeted last year, 35 percent of that new, smaller total could be less absolute money than 15 percent of the previous year's much larger total.
Recognizing this mathematical gap reveals the argument's central vulnerability.

Anahtar Kavram

Percent vs. Number Flaw
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Konular

Flaw in the Reasoning

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