Criminologist: The city council insists its new zero-tolerance policing strategy is succeeding, citing a 15 percent reduction in overall violent crime over the six months since the strategy was launched. This evidence, however, is meaningless. Over those same six months, a regional economic collapse caused the city's total population to plummet by roughly 20 percent as residents relocated. Consequently, the zero-tolerance strategy has had absolutely no effect on the incidence of violent crime.
The criminologist's argument is vulnerable to criticism on the grounds that it illicitly infers a causal relationship between the policing strategy and the reduction in crime based solely on a chronological correlation.
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The statement is False.
The statement is false because it misattributes the logical flaw. It describes a correlation-to-causation fallacy, which is the error made by the city council. The criminologist's actual error is concluding that the policy had no effect whatsoever merely because the council's evidence for success was flawed (an 'absence of evidence' fallacy).
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Flaw in the Reasoning: Separating the Author's Flaw from the Opponent's Flaw