Marine biologist: A coral reef ecosystem can successfully recover from a severe bleaching event only if local water temperatures stabilize within historical averages for at least three consecutive years. Recent data from the Zephyr Atoll shows that local water temperatures have indeed stabilized within historical averages for the past four years. Therefore, we can be confident that the Zephyr Atoll's coral reef ecosystem will successfully recover from its recent severe bleaching event.
Which of the following best describes the logical flaw in the marine biologist's reasoning?
- incorrectly infers that a result will definitely occur merely because a prerequisite for that result has been satisfiedCevap
- Bmistakes a condition that is sufficient to produce a certain outcome for one that is required to produce that outcome
- Cfails to consider that the stabilization of local water temperatures might be the result, rather than the cause, of ecosystem recovery
- Dillicitly shifts the meaning of 'historical averages' between the premise and the conclusion
- Eincorrectly assumes that a characteristic belonging to one specific atoll is shared by all marine ecosystems
Cevap
The argument incorrectly infers that a result will definitely occur merely because a prerequisite for that result has been satisfied.
The argument's first sentence establishes that stable temperatures are necessary for recovery ('recover only if stable'). It then notes that temperatures are stable at Zephyr Atoll, and concludes that Zephyr Atoll will recover. This reasoning is flawed because it treats a necessary condition (stable temperatures) as if it were a sufficient condition (guaranteeing recovery). The correct option accurately describes this illegal reversal by noting the argument infers a result (recovery) will occur just because a prerequisite (stable temperatures) is satisfied.
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Necessary vs. Sufficient Condition Flaws