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Meteorologist: Over the past decade, the coastal city of Port Nola has experienced a significant increase in the frequency of severe winter storms. Many climatologists attribute this anomaly to a recent, unprecedented shift in the offshore warm-water currents. However, historical weather logs from the 1820s reveal that Port Nola experienced a decade of winter storms of identical frequency and severity, despite the offshore currents remaining perfectly stable during that era. Therefore, the recent shift in ocean currents is probably not the primary cause of the current severe winter storms in Port Nola.

Which one of the following, if true, most strongly supports the meteorologist's argument?

  1. A
    The recent shift in offshore warm-water currents has substantially increased surface evaporation near Port Nola, creating the exact atmospheric conditions necessary to fuel severe winter storms.
  2. B
    The historical weather logs from the 1820s were meticulously maintained by naval officers whose observations of maritime weather have been proven completely accurate by modern scientific analysis.
  3. A cyclical atmospheric pressure pattern, which records indicate was the sole driver of the 1820s winter storms, has recently reformed over the Port Nola coast.Cevap
  4. D
    While the absolute number of winter storms in Port Nola has increased over the past decade, the percentage of those storms classified as severe has remained identical to the percentage in the 1820s.
  5. E
    The severe winter storms that struck Port Nola in the 1820s were not caused by shifts in offshore warm-water currents.

Cevap

The correct answer is the option stating that a cyclical atmospheric pressure pattern, which drove the 1820s storms, has recently reformed over Port Nola.
The correct answer strengthens the argument by providing a highly probable alternative cause that bridges both the historical and current events. By establishing that the exact same atmospheric pressure pattern responsible for the 1820s storms has recently re-emerged, it significantly increases the probability that this cyclical pattern—not the recent shift in ocean currents—is the primary cause of the current storms. This effectively defends the author's reasoning against the possibility that the past and present storms had entirely different causes.

Adım Adım Çözüm

1
Identify the main conclusion of the argument.
The conclusion is that the recent shift in ocean currents is probably not the primary cause of the current severe winter storms.
This establishes the target claim we need to strengthen. It is a rejection of a specific causal relationship.
2
Identify the premises supporting the conclusion.
Premise 1: Climatologists blame the new ocean current shift. Premise 2: In the 1820s, identical storms occurred even though the currents were perfectly stable.
Understanding the evidence reveals the author's logic: because the effect happened in the past without the purported cause, the purported cause isn't responsible now.
3
Identify the logical gap or vulnerability in the reasoning.
The argument assumes that whatever caused the storms in the 1820s must also be the cause today, ignoring the possibility that different factors could cause similar storms in different eras.
To strengthen the argument, we must protect it from this vulnerability.
4
Evaluate the options to find one that bridges the gap.
The option introducing the cyclical atmospheric pressure pattern explicitly connects the cause from the 1820s to the present day.
Providing a verified alternative cause that is actively operating during both time periods strongly diminishes the likelihood that the newly shifted ocean currents are to blame.

Anahtar Kavram

Strengthening Causal Arguments (Alternative Causes)
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