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Zorluk: ZorStrengthen

Public Health Official: Over the last decade, the municipality of Veridia has seen a 25 percent increase in residents diagnosed with chronic insomnia. During this same period, surveys indicate that the average daily screen time for adults in Veridia rose by over 30 percent. Because no other major public health trends were identified, this surge in screen time must be the primary factor driving the rise in chronic insomnia.

Which of the following, if true, most strengthen the official's argument? (Select all that apply)

  1. Neurological research demonstrates that the specific wavelengths of light emitted by modern digital devices strongly suppress the human brain's production of sleep-inducing hormones.Cevap
  2. Neighboring municipalities with similar demographics to Veridia, but where average screen time remained stable over the last decade, recorded no significant increase in chronic insomnia.Cevap
  3. C
    Clinical interviews reveal that many adults in Veridia with high screen time use their devices late at night specifically because they are already struggling to fall asleep.
  4. D
    The percentage of Veridia residents who own personal digital devices has grown at a much slower rate than the absolute number of chronic insomnia diagnoses.
  5. E
    Five years ago, Veridia's medical board broadened the clinical diagnostic criteria for chronic insomnia to include patients with milder symptoms who previously did not qualify.

Cevap

The correct options are the one describing the biological mechanism of blue light suppressing sleep hormones, and the one showing that neighboring municipalities without an increase in screen time saw no increase in insomnia.
The official concludes that increased screen time caused the rise in insomnia based purely on their concurrent increase over a decade. To strengthen a causal argument, one must bolster the specific link between the purported cause and the effect. The correct answers achieve this in two classic ways: first, by providing a biological mechanism that explains exactly how the cause produces the effect (blue light suppressing hormones); and second, by showing a control group where the cause is absent and the effect is simultaneously absent (neighboring towns with stable screen time and stable insomnia rates).

Adım Adım Çözüm

1
Analyze the stimulus to identify the premises and the main conclusion.
Premises: Insomnia increased by 25% and screen time increased by 30% simultaneously. Conclusion: The surge in screen time is the primary factor driving the rise in chronic insomnia.
Understanding the exact causal claim being made is necessary to evaluate what evidence would logically strengthen it.
2
Identify the logical gaps in the official's causal argument.
The argument assumes that a correlation between two trends implies causation, ignoring potential alternative causes, the possibility of reverse causation, and the need for a mechanism linking the two.
Strengthening a causal argument requires finding evidence that directly addresses and bridges these logical vulnerabilities.
3
Evaluate the answer choices for standard strengthening properties.
Look for options that provide a causal mechanism, show the effect is absent when the cause is absent (control group), or explicitly rule out alternative explanations. Avoid options that provide alternative causes or demonstrate reverse causation.
These are the recognized methods for validating a causal relationship in logical reasoning assessments.

Anahtar Kavram

Strengthening Causal Arguments
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Konular

Strengthen

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