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Zorluk: ZorMeasures of Association and Impact

A state health department conducts a retrospective cohort analysis to evaluate the safety of a new targeted biologic therapy for moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis. The investigators specifically monitor the incidence of herpes zoster reactivation over a 3-year follow-up period, comparing patients on the new biologic therapy to a separate cohort receiving traditional systemic agents.

The study results are summarized in the following table:

Treatment GroupTotal PatientsHerpes Zoster Cases
Targeted biologic therapy2,500175
Traditional systemic agents4,000120

Assuming these results are statistically significant, what is the number needed to harm (NNH) for the targeted biologic therapy compared to traditional systemic agents?

  1. A
    4
  2. B
    14
  3. 25Cevap
  4. D
    33
  5. E
    55

Cevap

25
The number needed to harm (NNH) represents the number of patients who must be exposed to a risk factor or medication over a specified period to cause one additional adverse event. It is calculated mathematically as the inverse of the Absolute Risk Increase (NNH=1ARINNH = \frac{1}{ARI}). To find the ARI, first determine the incidence of the adverse event in both groups. The incidence in the targeted biologic group is 1752500=0.07\frac{175}{2500} = 0.07 (7%). The incidence in the traditional systemic agents group is 1204000=0.03\frac{120}{4000} = 0.03 (3%). The ARI is the difference between these two rates (0.07−0.03=0.040.07 - 0.03 = 0.04). The NNH is therefore 10.04=25\frac{1}{0.04} = 25. This indicates that for every 25 patients treated with the targeted biologic therapy instead of traditional agents, one additional case of herpes zoster reactivation will occur.

Adım Adım Çözüm

1
Calculate the incidence of the adverse event in the exposed group (biologic therapy).
Iexposed=1752500=0.07I_{exposed} = \frac{175}{2500} = 0.07
To determine the absolute risk of herpes zoster in the population receiving the new treatment.
2
Calculate the incidence of the adverse event in the unexposed control group (traditional agents).
Iunexposed=1204000=0.03I_{unexposed} = \frac{120}{4000} = 0.03
To establish the baseline risk of herpes zoster reactivation without the new treatment.
3
Calculate the Absolute Risk Increase (ARI).
ARI=Iexposed−Iunexposed=0.07−0.03=0.04ARI = I_{exposed} - I_{unexposed} = 0.07 - 0.03 = 0.04
ARI represents the excess risk of the adverse event that is specifically attributable to the new biologic therapy.
4
Calculate the Number Needed to Harm (NNH).
NNH=1ARI=10.04=25NNH = \frac{1}{ARI} = \frac{1}{0.04} = 25
NNH translates the absolute risk difference into a clinical metric, showing how many patients must be treated to observe one additional adverse event.

Anahtar Kavram

The Number Needed to Harm (NNH) is calculated as the inverse of the Absolute Risk Increase (ARI). It requires calculating the incidence rates for both exposed and unexposed groups, finding their difference, and taking the inverse.
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