Critical Reasoning: Argument Evaluation

176 questions

All types176 Multiple choice143 Multiple select3 True / False25 Matching5

Six months ago, a maritime freight company equipped its fleet of cargo ships with automated wind sails designed to reduce diesel fuel consumption. Over this period, the fleet recorded only a 2 percent drop in fuel consumption per nautical mile, far short of the manufacturer's advertised 10 percent reduction. Nevertheless, the company's logistics analysts conclude that the wind sails successfully provided fuel savings consistent with expectations.

Which of the following, if true, most strongly supports the logistics analysts' conclusion?

Several competing shipping lines operating on identical maritime routes without wind sails reported a 5 percent decrease in fuel consumption over the same six-month period due to unusually favorable ocean currents.

During the past six months, new maritime regulations required the fleet to increase its average cargo weight per trip by 25 percent, an adjustment that typically increases fuel consumption per nautical mile by at least 8 percent.

The purchase and installation costs of the wind sails are projected to be fully recovered through reduced operational expenses over the next four years.

The manufacturer of the wind sails recently released an upgraded control algorithm that optimizes sail positioning based on real-time satellite wind forecasts.

The shipping company's overall operational expenditures decreased during the trial period primarily due to a sharp drop in global crude oil prices.

Show answer & explanation

Answer: During the past six months, new maritime regulations required the fleet to increase its average cargo weight per trip by 25 percent, an adjustment that typically increases fuel consumption per nautical mile by at least 8 percent.

Answer

The argument is most strongly supported by the statement indicating that increased cargo weight during the trial period would normally have raised fuel consumption by at least 8 percent.

The correct answer demonstrates that an unmentioned confounding factor—a 25 percent increase in cargo weight—would normally have increased fuel consumption by at least 8 percent per nautical mile during the trial period. If fuel consumption would have increased to 108 percent of baseline without the sails, but instead decreased to 98 percent (a 2 percent overall drop), the sails actually achieved an effective savings of approximately 10 percent, perfectly matching the original expectations.

Step-by-Step Solution

Identify the conclusion and premises of the argument.

Premise: The fleet saw only a 2% reduction in fuel consumption per nautical mile instead of the expected 10%. Conclusion: The wind sails were nevertheless effective and delivered fuel savings consistent with expectations.

Understanding the discrepancy between the observed 2% reduction and the expected 10% reduction is necessary to find information that resolves the gap.

Determine what type of evidence is needed to strengthen the conclusion.

Evidence showing that external factors increased baseline fuel usage during the trial period would account for the missing savings percentage.

If baseline fuel consumption would have risen in the absence of the sails, the observed 2% net drop represents a much larger gross savings than it appears.

Evaluate the choices to find the statement that accounts for this baseline change.

The option stating that heavier cargo loads would normally increase fuel consumption by 8% establishes that without sails, fuel usage would have been 108% of normal. A net drop to 98% means the sails achieved a 10% effective reduction.

This confirms the analysts' conclusion by establishing that the sails performed exactly as expected once confounding variables are controlled.

Key Concept

Strengthening Causal and Evaluative Arguments by Controlling Confounding Variables

Question 82Question →

A local coffee shop recently introduced a loyalty reward card system, offering customers a free drink after every ten drinks purchased. Since introducing the card system three months ago, the coffee shop's overall sales volume has increased by 15 percent. The shop owner concludes that the new loyalty reward card system is directly responsible for this increase in sales.

Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the shop owner's conclusion?

Two months ago, a major corporate office building directly across the street opened, bringing thousands of new employees to the block daily.

Surveys indicate that customers who enrolled in the loyalty card program visited the coffee shop more frequently than they had prior to enrollment.

Coffee shops operating in neighboring towns reported similar sales increases after redesigning their interior seating arrangements.

The cost of printing the plastic loyalty cards slightly reduced the coffee shop's overall profit margin on promotional drinks.

The coffee shop's total sales volume had remained completely unchanged during the six months prior to the introduction of the card program.

Show answer & explanation

Answer: Two months ago, a major corporate office building directly across the street opened, bringing thousands of new employees to the block daily.

Answer

The argument is most weakened by the finding that a major corporate office building directly across the street opened two months ago, bringing thousands of new employees to the block daily.

The argument commits a classic correlation-to-causation leap, assuming that because sales increased after the loyalty card was introduced, the loyalty card must have caused the increase. Pointing out that a major office complex opened across the street provides a strong alternative explanation for the increased sales volume, thereby undermining the conclusion that the loyalty card was the primary cause.

Step-by-Step Solution

Identify the conclusion and premises

Premise: Sales increased 15% after introducing loyalty cards. Conclusion: The loyalty card system caused the sales increase.

Understanding the precise causal claim is essential for evaluating weaken questions.

Determine the unstated assumption

The author assumes no other major factor occurred at the same time that could account for the 15% increase in sales.

Causal arguments rely on the assumption that correlation implies causation and that alternative causes are absent.

Evaluate the choices for an alternative cause

The opening of a large office complex nearby provides a clear alternative explanation for why coffee sales surged during that period.

Presenting an plausible alternative cause directly casts doubt on the claim that the loyalty card was responsible.

Key Concept

Alternative Explanation in Causal Reasoning

Question 83Question →

A ten-year study of commercial aviation maintenance facilities revealed that facilities adopting a novel AI-driven diagnostic system experienced a 35 percent drop in unscheduled engine repairs compared to facilities relying exclusively on traditional human technician inspections. The researchers concluded that the real-time predictive analytics of the AI diagnostic system directly prevented mechanical failures by detecting micro-wear patterns earlier than human inspectors could. Which of the following would it be most useful to investigate in order to evaluate the validity of the researchers' conclusion?

Whether the facilities that adopted the AI diagnostic system simultaneously instituted a policy replacing engine components based on fixed operational hours rather than waiting for detected wear.

Whether the technicians at facilities using the AI system required significantly more training hours than technicians operating under traditional inspection methods.

Whether traditional human technician inspections are capable of identifying non-mechanical failures that the AI diagnostic system is not programmed to detect.

Whether the financial cost of installing the AI diagnostic system exceeded the net savings realized from preventing unscheduled engine repairs.

Whether facilities that did not adopt the AI system possessed engines that were, on average, significantly older than the engines serviced at facilities adopting the AI system.

Show answer & explanation

Answer: Whether the facilities that adopted the AI diagnostic system simultaneously instituted a policy replacing engine components based on fixed operational hours rather than waiting for detected wear.

Answer

It would be most useful to determine whether facilities adopting the AI system simultaneously instituted a fixed-hour component replacement policy.

The correct answer provides information about a potential confounding variable. To establish that AI diagnostic analytics caused the 35 percent drop in unscheduled repairs, one must rule out other concurrent changes that could produce the exact same outcome. If the facilities using AI also switched to replacing engine components after a fixed number of operational hours, those scheduled replacements would prevent component failures before unscheduled repairs became necessary, rendering the AI system's micro-wear detection redundant or irrelevant to the observed statistical drop.

Step-by-Step Solution

Deconstruct the core argument

Premise: Facilities using AI diagnostics had 35% fewer unscheduled engine repairs than facilities using human inspectors. Conclusion: AI diagnostic analytics directly caused the reduction by detecting micro-wear early.

Evaluating a causal claim requires identifying the premise (correlation/observed difference) and the conclusion (causal attribution).

Identify the logical vulnerability

The argument assumes that no third factor (confounding variable) introduced concurrently with the AI system was responsible for preventing the unscheduled repairs.

Causal claims based on comparative facility outcomes are vulnerable to alternative explanations or co-occurring operational changes.

Evaluate the impact of the key question

If facilities adopting AI also began replacing components at fixed operational intervals, that routine maintenance policy—rather than AI early detection—could explain why engines rarely failed unscheduled. If they did not institute such a policy, the causal link to AI detection is strengthened.

Determining the presence of a co-occurring preventive measure directly tests whether an alternative cause explains the observed effect.

Key Concept

Evaluating Causal Claims via Alternative Explanations and Confounding Variables

Estimated Time:2m 0s

Question 84Question →

In an effort to increase agricultural production, an agricultural board in a drought-prone province advised tomato growers to replace conventional overhead sprinkler systems with subsurface drip irrigation, which delivers water directly below the soil surface to root zones. The board claimed that adopting subsurface drip irrigation will significantly increase average tomato yields per acre across farms in the province. The board reasoned that because subsurface drip irrigation minimizes surface evaporation, it ensures consistent moisture levels near the plant roots, which is crucial for healthy fruit development.

Which of the following, if true, provides the strongest support for the agricultural board's claim regarding tomato yields?

Consistently stable moisture levels in the root zone prevent a soil-borne fungal infection common to the province that severely reduces tomato plant yields.

Subsurface drip irrigation lines in the province are uniquely prone to clogging by minerals present in local groundwater, frequently causing uneven water delivery across fields.

Tomato varieties grown in neighboring provinces produce significantly higher yields when cultivated in controlled greenhouse environments rather than open fields.

Overhead sprinkler systems consume considerably more electricity per hour of operation than subsurface drip irrigation systems do.

Several farms in the province that adopted subsurface drip irrigation reduced their overall annual water consumption by more than twenty percent.

Show answer & explanation

Answer: Consistently stable moisture levels in the root zone prevent a soil-borne fungal infection common to the province that severely reduces tomato plant yields.

Answer

The statement that consistently stable moisture levels in the root zone prevent a soil-borne fungal infection common to the province that severely reduces tomato yields provides the strongest support for the argument.

The argument concludes that subsurface drip irrigation will increase tomato yields per acre because it maintains consistent root-zone moisture by preventing evaporation. The option stating that stable root-zone moisture prevents a common local fungal infection that severely reduces yields provides a concrete biological mechanism explaining WHY consistent moisture will result in higher yields, thus strongly reinforcing the conclusion.

Step-by-Step Solution

Identify the main conclusion and core premise of the argument.

Premise: Subsurface drip irrigation minimizes evaporation and keeps root zone moisture levels consistent. Conclusion: Adopting subsurface drip irrigation will significantly increase average tomato yields per acre in the province.

Understanding the precise logical gap between consistent root zone moisture and increased crop yield is necessary to evaluate potential strengtheners.

Evaluate how an additional fact can bridge the gap between premise and conclusion.

If consistent root zone moisture directly prevents a prevalent local disease that normally cuts yields, then maintaining that moisture level will logically cause overall yields to increase.

A valid strengthening statement establishes a direct causal connection between the operational mechanism and the desired outcome.

Eliminate choices that weaken the argument, focus on cost/water savings, or introduce out-of-scope details.

Options raising concerns about system clogging weaken the claim; options discussing electricity or total water savings address collateral benefits rather than yield per acre; options discussing greenhouse farming in other regions are out of scope.

Only facts directly bolstering the mechanism driving higher crop yield per acre serve as valid strengthening evidence.

Key Concept

Strengthening Arguments

Question 85Question →

A recent municipal proposal suggests replacing all diesel-powered harbor tugboats with fully electric alternatives in order to reduce port emissions. Proponents claim that this transition will immediately lower overall harbor operational costs because electric motors require less maintenance. However, this argument overlooks the major electrical grid upgrades needed to charge high-capacity batteries during peak operating hours. The capital expense of installing these dedicated charging stations will far exceed any short-term savings in motor maintenance. Therefore, implementing the proposal as currently structured is unlikely to achieve a net reduction in port operating costs.

In the argument given, the two boldfaced portions play which of the following roles?

The first is a claim put forward by proponents of a proposal that the argument as a whole opposes; the second is a premise offered to support the author's main conclusion.

The first is the main conclusion drawn by the author; the second is a supporting premise offered to justify that conclusion.

The first is a claim that the author opposes; the second is the author's main conclusion regarding the proposal.

The first is a position that the author seeks to defend; the second is evidence that undermines that position.

The first is background context describing a port policy; the second is a counterargument that the author subsequently refutes.

Show answer & explanation

Answer: The first is a claim put forward by proponents of a proposal that the argument as a whole opposes; the second is a premise offered to support the author's main conclusion.

Answer

The first statement is a claim put forward by proponents of a proposal that the argument as a whole opposes; the second is a premise offered to support the author's main conclusion.

The argument opens by mentioning a proposal and then states what proponents claim in the first boldfaced portion. The pivot word 'However' introduces the author's rebuttal, establishing that the author opposes this claim. The second boldfaced statement provides evidence (capital expense of charging stations) supporting the author's conclusion at the end. Thus, the correct choice accurately describes the first as a claim of proponents opposed by the argument, and the second as a supporting premise for the main conclusion.

Step-by-Step Solution

Analyze the main argument structure and identify the main conclusion.

The main conclusion is the final sentence: implementing the proposal as currently structured is unlikely to reduce net port operating costs.

The conclusion represents the primary point the author is advocating for, introduced by the conclusion indicator 'Therefore'.

Determine the role of the first boldface statement.

It presents the argument of the proponents ('Proponents claim...'), which the author proceeds to counter after the transition word 'However'.

The author opposes the idea that operational costs will be lowered immediately.

Determine the role of the second boldface statement.

It provides factual evidence regarding capital expenses of charging infrastructure to explain why net costs will not decrease.

This serves as a premise that directly supports the author's main conclusion.

Key Concept

Analyzing structural roles of boldface statements relative to the author's conclusion.

Question 86Question →

Over a five-year period in a coastal agricultural district, local fruit orchards gradually replaced synthetic chemical pesticides with natural predatory insects to control pest populations. During the exact same period, nearby estuarine populations of a threatened wild salmon species increased by over 30 percent. Environmental analysts concluded that the reduction in synthetic pesticide runoff was the direct cause of the recovery in the wild salmon population.

Which of the following would it be most useful to establish in order to evaluate the validity of the environmental analysts' conclusion?

Whether regional commercial fishing quotas for salmon were significantly reduced during the same five-year period

Whether the natural predatory insects introduced to the orchards also feed on non-pest insect species

Whether synthetic chemical pesticides are more expensive per acre than acquiring and maintaining predatory insect stocks

Whether growing salmon populations cause a decline in the abundance of local aquatic crustaceans

Whether orchards in neighboring inland valleys that continued using synthetic pesticides experienced lower overall fruit yields

Show answer & explanation

Answer: Whether regional commercial fishing quotas for salmon were significantly reduced during the same five-year period

Answer

The correct option is the one inquiring whether regional commercial fishing quotas for salmon were significantly reduced during the same five-year period.

The argument concludes that reduced pesticide runoff caused the 30 percent increase in wild salmon based solely on the fact that both changes occurred over the same five-year period. To evaluate a causal argument of this structure, one must test for alternative explanations that could account for the observed increase in salmon. Finding out whether regional commercial fishing quotas for salmon were significantly tightened during this period provides critical information: if quotas were reduced, fewer salmon were caught, offering a direct alternative explanation for the population rise. If quotas remained unchanged, alternative causes are minimized, strengthening the analysts' conclusion.

Step-by-Step Solution

Deconstruct the core argument and identify premises and conclusion

Premise: Orchards replaced synthetic pesticides with natural predators. Premise: Salmon populations increased by 30% over the same 5-year period. Conclusion: The reduction in pesticide runoff directly caused the increase in wild salmon populations.

Understanding the precise causal leap from observed correlation (pesticide change + salmon increase) to cause is necessary to evaluate the argument.

Identify the central assumption and vulnerabilities of the causal claim

The author assumes that no other co-occurring factor (confounding variable or alternative explanation) was responsible for the increase in salmon numbers.

Causal claims based on co-occurring events are vulnerable to alternative explanations that occurred during the same timeframe.

Assess the answer choices for a factor that tests for alternative causes

Checking whether commercial fishing quotas were reduced tests an alternative cause. If quotas were significantly reduced, the salmon population increase may be due to reduced harvesting rather than cleaner water.

Evaluating a prominent alternative explanation directly determines whether the stated cause or an unstated external factor produced the observed effect.

Key Concept

Evaluating Causal Arguments via Confounding Variables / Alternative Explanations

Estimated Time:2m 0s

Question 87Question →

To boost regional farm earnings during droughts, a state agricultural agency plans to subsidize half the cost of a new drought-resistant wheat seed for local farmers. Because this new strain yields 25 percent more grain per acre during dry spells than traditional strains, agency officials claim the subsidy program will increase net agricultural revenue across the region during drought years. Which of the following would be most useful to determine in evaluating the likelihood that the agency's plan will achieve its intended goal?

Whether the market price per bushel of wheat declines disproportionately when regional supply increases during drought years.

Whether the synthetic chemical treatment required for the new seed strain reduces the long-term soil fertility needed for non-wheat rotational crops.

Whether neighboring agricultural districts intend to introduce similar subsidized crop programs within the next decade.

Whether traditional wheat strains can survive mild dry spells using smaller quantities of water than previously estimated.

Whether the agricultural agency currently earns a profit on the distribution of other subsidized farm inputs.

Show answer & explanation

Answer: Whether the market price per bushel of wheat declines disproportionately when regional supply increases during drought years.

Answer

Determining whether the market price per bushel drops disproportionately when supply rises provides the necessary test of variance to evaluate whether increased yield translates into increased net agricultural revenue.

The plan relies on the mathematical assumption that a 25 percent increase in grain volume will increase total revenue. However, Total Revenue = Price × Quantity. If increasing local output causes the market price per bushel to drop significantly, total revenue could decrease despite the higher yield. Determining the price behavior under increased supply is therefore critical for evaluating the plan.

Step-by-Step Solution

Identify the plan and its explicit objective.

Plan: Subsidize 50% of the cost of a high-yielding drought-resistant wheat seed. Objective: Increase net agricultural revenue during drought years based on a 25% yield increase per acre.

Evaluating a plan requires checking whether the proposed mechanism directly leads to the desired objective.

Apply the Variance Test to evaluate the plan's core financial assumption.

Revenue is calculated as Quantity Sold multiplied by Price per Unit, minus Costs. If total quantity produced increases due to higher yields, but the market price per unit drops at a faster rate due to oversupply, total gross revenue (and thus net revenue) will fall.

Knowing price elasticity reveals whether higher crop volume actually yields higher revenue or causes a market price crash that undermines net earnings.

Select the choice that directly measures this price-yield relationship.

The option assessing whether price per bushel declines disproportionately directly impacts the success or failure of the goal.

An affirmative answer undermines the plan's objective, while a negative answer validates it.

Key Concept

Evaluating Plan Efficacy via Test of Variance

Question 88Question →

A hospital recently introduced an automated ultraviolet-light room sanitation system intended to lower patient infection rates. During the six months following the system's installation, the hospital reported a 30 percent drop in patient infection rates compared to the previous six-month period. Hospital administrators concluded that the ultraviolet sanitation system was directly responsible for the reduction in patient infections. Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the hospital administrators' conclusion?

Three months prior to installing the system, the hospital implemented a strict hand-hygiene protocol and staff training program that significantly reduced bacterial transmission.

Nearby regional hospitals that did not install the ultraviolet sanitation system experienced no change in their patient infection rates over the same period.

Operating the ultraviolet sanitation system requires considerably more electrical power than conventional manual cleaning methods.

Patients surveyed after the installation reported higher satisfaction scores regarding overall room cleanliness.

The total purchase cost of the ultraviolet equipment exceeded the hospital's initial departmental budget allocation.

Show answer & explanation

Answer: Three months prior to installing the system, the hospital implemented a strict hand-hygiene protocol and staff training program that significantly reduced bacterial transmission.

Answer

The statement regarding the implementation of a strict hand-hygiene protocol and staff training program three months prior to the installation of the ultraviolet system most seriously weakens the argument.

The correct answer provides an alternative explanation for the observed 30 percent decline in patient infections. If a comprehensive hand-hygiene protocol was instituted three months before the UV system was installed, that hygiene initiative could be the real reason infection rates decreased, thereby undermining the conclusion that the UV system was the primary cause.

Step-by-Step Solution

Identify the conclusion and premises

Premise: Infections dropped by 30% after installing a UV sanitation system. Conclusion: The UV system caused the reduction in infections.

Understanding the precise causal claim is essential for evaluating argument weakness.

Analyze the logical gap

The argument assumes no other factor caused the infection rate decline during the relevant timeframe.

Causal conclusions rely on the assumption that alternative causes have been ruled out.

Evaluate the choices for alternative explanations

The option introducing a newly enforced hand-hygiene protocol provides a competing explanation for the drop in infection rates.

Introducing a viable alternative cause directly undermines the claim that the UV system was responsible.

Key Concept

Weakening Causal Arguments via Alternative Causes

Question 89Question →

Many industry analysts predict that introducing AI-driven chatbots for routine inquiries will inevitably reduce customer support costs for retail banks. However, implementing these systems requires significant ongoing expenditures for software updates and specialized technical staff. Furthermore, automated interfaces often alienate customers seeking complex financial guidance, leading to higher customer attrition. Therefore, retail banks that rely heavily on AI chatbots to cut operational expenses will ultimately experience a net decline in overall profitability.

In the argument above, which of the following best describes the roles played by the two boldfaced portions?

The first is evidence offered to support the author's main position; the second is the main conclusion of the argument.

The first is evidence offered to support the author's main position; the second is an intermediate conclusion used to support a broader claim about industry trends.

The first is a claim presented to support the prediction made by industry analysts; the second is the main conclusion of the argument.

The first provides background information establishing a general industry trend; the second is a counterargument that the author seeks to refute.

The first is the main conclusion of the argument; the second is a premise supporting that conclusion.

Show answer & explanation

Answer: The first is evidence offered to support the author's main position; the second is the main conclusion of the argument.

Answer

The first boldfaced statement provides evidence introduced by the author to counter the analysts' view and support the author's position, while the second boldfaced statement expresses the main conclusion of the argument.

The first boldfaced portion presents empirical evidence regarding ongoing expenditures, introduced with the pivot 'However' to challenge the analysts' claim and support the author's point of view. The second boldfaced statement begins with 'Therefore' and presents the author's final recommendation/prediction, which is the main conclusion of the passage.

Step-by-Step Solution

Identify the main argument structure and author stance

The author contrasts a prediction made by industry analysts with counter-arguments leading to a final judgment.

Understanding the overall flow distinguishes author premises/conclusions from opposing views.

Analyze the role of the first boldface statement

The first boldface ('However, implementing these systems requires...') follows a structural pivot ('However') and provides a premise supporting the author's critique.

It acts as direct evidence showing why AI chatbots involve unexpected costs.

Analyze the role of the second boldface statement

The second boldface ('Therefore, retail banks...') follows the conclusion indicator ('Therefore') and expresses the overall claim supported by the premises.

It represents the author's ultimate takeaway regarding net profitability.

Key Concept

Identifying Boldface Statement Roles in Critical Reasoning

Question 90Question →

To increase net profit from its flagship consumer electronics line, a device manufacturer plans to eliminate bundled accessories from standard product packaging and sell them as standalone items. Executive leadership reasons that smaller packaging will significantly decrease global freight expenses, while individual accessory sales will create a lucrative secondary revenue stream without increasing baseline production costs.

Which of the following would be most useful to know in evaluating whether the manufacturer’s plan will achieve its goal?

Whether the shipping cost per unit for standalone accessories is lower than the shipping cost per unit for the unbundled flagship device.

Whether competing electronics manufacturers also intend to remove bundled accessories from their future product lines.

Whether a substantial proportion of consumers who would have bought the flagship device will instead purchase rival products that include all necessary accessories at no extra cost.

Whether the cost of redesigning the product packaging to a smaller form factor will be fully offset by the first month of shipping savings.

Whether consumers who purchase premium smartphones replace their devices more frequently than consumers who purchase budget devices.

Show answer & explanation

Answer: Whether a substantial proportion of consumers who would have bought the flagship device will instead purchase rival products that include all necessary accessories at no extra cost.

Answer

Whether a substantial proportion of consumers who would have bought the flagship device will instead purchase rival products that include all necessary accessories at no extra cost.

The option assessing consumer switching behavior passes the variance test. If a substantial proportion of customers switch to competitors that include accessories, the lost revenue from flagship device sales will outweigh freight savings and accessory profits, causing the plan to fail. If very few customers switch, demand for the main device will hold steady, allowing freight savings and accessory sales to increase net profit.

Step-by-Step Solution

Identify the goal and the proposed plan.

Goal: Increase net profit from the flagship line. Plan: Unbundle accessories, selling them separately while reducing package size to cut freight costs.

Evaluating a plan requires understanding the intended outcome relative to its mechanisms.

Identify key assumptions and potential vulnerabilities of the plan.

The plan assumes that consumer demand for the flagship device will remain constant despite the reduced included value.

If core product demand drops significantly due to unbundling, loss of primary sales revenue could outweigh freight savings and accessory profits.

Apply the Variance Test to the answer choices.

Evaluating whether consumers switch to competitors who bundle accessories yields opposite outcomes: a 'yes' answer invalidates the plan by destroying primary revenue, while a 'no' answer confirms the plan's efficacy.

The correct useful-information option must produce opposite logical impacts on plan success depending on which way the evaluation falls.

Key Concept

Evaluating Plan Viability via the Variance Test

Question 91Question →

Conservators at a national museum suspect that a famous seventeenth-century oil painting suffered discolored fading primarily due to historical exposure to trace hydrogen sulfide gas released by nineteenth-century coal heating systems. To prevent further chemical degradation, the museum plans to install specialized ambient air filtration units designed to absorb hydrogen sulfide gas from the gallery. The head curator concludes that installing these units will effectively halt the ongoing chemical discoloration of the painting.

Which of the following, if true, provides the strongest support for the head curator's conclusion?

Air quality sensors in the gallery have recently measured continuous trace levels of hydrogen sulfide entering the building from outside vehicle exhaust.

The proposed chemical filtration units emit low concentrations of nitrogen dioxide gas as an operational byproduct, a compound known to accelerate paint binder breakdown.

Other seventeenth-century paintings created in the same geographic region relied on plant-based organic pigments that are unaffected by sulfur compounds.

The total operational cost of installing and maintaining the ambient filtration units is substantially lower than hiring a team of art restoration experts.

Coal heating systems utilized during the nineteenth century produced higher concentrations of airborne particulates than modern gas heating systems do.

Show answer & explanation

Answer: Air quality sensors in the gallery have recently measured continuous trace levels of hydrogen sulfide entering the building from outside vehicle exhaust.

Answer

The argument is most strongly supported by the statement indicating that air quality sensors in the gallery have recently measured continuous trace levels of hydrogen sulfide entering the building from outside vehicle exhaust.

The curator concludes that filtering hydrogen sulfide will halt ongoing discoloration. For this plan to succeed, hydrogen sulfide must currently be present in the gallery environment. Demonstrating that modern vehicle exhaust introduces continuous trace levels of hydrogen sulfide into the gallery confirms that an active threat exists for the filters to neutralize, directly supporting the conclusion.

Step-by-Step Solution

Deconstruct the argument into premise and conclusion.

Premise: The painting suffered past damage from hydrogen sulfide gas, and the museum plans to install units that filter hydrogen sulfide from gallery air. Conclusion: The filtration units will halt the painting's ongoing discoloration.

Identifying the logical leap helps isolate unstated assumptions.

Identify the critical gap in reasoning.

The argument assumes that hydrogen sulfide is currently present in the gallery air and actively contributing to ongoing discoloration. If no hydrogen sulfide is present today, filtering it will have no effect on current discoloration.

A strengthening option must bridge this gap by confirming that hydrogen sulfide remains an active threat in the gallery.

Evaluate the choices against the logical gap.

The option establishing that sensors currently detect hydrogen sulfide from vehicle exhaust confirms that the gas is actively present today, making the filtration units effective at halting the ongoing damage.

Supplying missing evidence of a current hazard directly validates the curator's prediction.

Key Concept

Strengthening Causal Plans by Confirming Present-Day Hazard

Estimated Time:2m 0s

Question 92Question →

A marine biology survey cataloged deep-sea coral reefs off the coast of Peninsula Y. The survey established that every reef located below a depth of 500 meters contains bioluminescent coral species. Furthermore, all coral reefs containing bioluminescent species in this region also host distinct populations of deep-sea shrimp. However, during the survey, several reefs located above a depth of 500 meters were found to host these same deep-sea shrimp populations.

Based on the survey results described above, which of the following statements must be true? (Select all that apply.)

Select all that apply

Every coral reef off Peninsula Y located below a depth of 500 meters hosts deep-sea shrimp populations.

Any coral reef off Peninsula Y that lacks deep-sea shrimp populations is located at a depth of 500 meters or less.

Any coral reef off Peninsula Y that hosts deep-sea shrimp populations must also contain bioluminescent coral species.

Reefs located above a depth of 500 meters contain a larger total population of deep-sea shrimp than reefs located below 500 meters.

Water temperature variations between depth zones explain why deep-sea shrimp inhabit certain reefs located above 500 meters.

Show answer & explanation

Answer: Every coral reef off Peninsula Y located below a depth of 500 meters hosts deep-sea shrimp populations.; Any coral reef off Peninsula Y that lacks deep-sea shrimp populations is located at a depth of 500 meters or less.

Answer

The statements establishing that every reef located below a depth of 500 meters hosts deep-sea shrimp populations, and that any reef lacking deep-sea shrimp populations must be located at a depth of 500 meters or less, are both valid deductions that must be true.

The passage establishes two linked conditional rules: any reef deeper than 500 meters contains bioluminescent coral, and any reef with bioluminescent coral hosts deep-sea shrimp. Combining these yields the direct deduction that every reef below 500 meters hosts deep-sea shrimp. Furthermore, taking the contrapositive of this combined rule shows that any reef lacking deep-sea shrimp cannot be below 500 meters, meaning it must be located at a depth of 500 meters or less. Both of these statements are logically necessary conclusions.

Step-by-Step Solution

Identify and map explicit conditional premises

Premise 1: Reef Depth > 500m → Bioluminescent Coral. Premise 2: Bioluminescent Coral → Deep-Sea Shrimp. Premise 3: Some Reefs Depth ≤ 500m → Deep-Sea Shrimp.

Mapping the statements into formal conditional logic clarifies valid inferential paths.

Synthesize the conditional premises into a transitive chain

Transitive chain: Reef Depth > 500m → Bioluminescent Coral → Deep-Sea Shrimp. Thus, Reef Depth > 500m → Deep-Sea Shrimp.

Combining the first two premises establishes that all reefs deeper than 500 meters necessarily host deep-sea shrimp.

Formulate the logically equivalent contrapositive of the transitive chain

Contrapositive: No Deep-Sea Shrimp → Reef Depth ≤ 500m.

If a conditional statement 'If X then Y' is true, its contrapositive 'If not Y then not X' is guaranteed to be true.

Key Concept

Conditional Logic & Valid Deductive Inferences

Question 93Question →

In Region K, agricultural water permits are issued annually based on historical crop yield metrics. In 2024, farms growing low-yield staple crops received 40 percent lower base water allocations than farms cultivating high-yield cash crops. However, regional environmental regulations dictate that any farm reducing its overall synthetic fertilizer usage by at least 25 percent in a given year is automatically granted a 30 percent bonus to its base water allocation for the subsequent year. In 2024, every farm cultivating high-yield cash crops reduced its synthetic fertilizer usage by more than 30 percent.

If the statements above are true, which of the following must also be true on the basis of them?

In 2025, every farm that cultivated high-yield cash crops in 2024 will qualify for a 30 percent bonus to its base water allocation.

In 2024, farms cultivating high-yield cash crops consumed less total water than farms growing low-yield staple crops.

Any farm in Region K that reduced its synthetic fertilizer usage by more than 30 percent in 2024 cultivated high-yield cash crops.

In 2025, farms growing low-yield staple crops will receive lower total water allocations than farms cultivating high-yield cash crops.

Reducing synthetic fertilizer usage is the most effective method for farms in Region K to increase their overall crop yields.

Show answer & explanation

Answer: In 2025, every farm that cultivated high-yield cash crops in 2024 will qualify for a 30 percent bonus to its base water allocation.

Answer

In 2025, every farm that cultivated high-yield cash crops in 2024 will qualify for a 30 percent bonus to its base water allocation.

The passage explicitly defines a rule: any farm reducing synthetic fertilizer usage by at least 25 percent in one year receives a 30 percent bonus to its base water allocation the next year. Since every farm cultivating high-yield cash crops reduced fertilizer usage by more than 30 percent in 2024, every such farm met the condition and must qualify for the 30 percent allocation bonus in 2025.

Step-by-Step Solution

Identify the rule governing water allocation bonuses.

A farm qualifies for a 30% water allocation bonus in year N+1 if it reduces synthetic fertilizer usage by at least 25% in year N.

This sets up the conditional requirement for earning the bonus.

Apply the 2024 performance facts to the rule.

In 2024, every high-yield cash crop farm reduced fertilizer usage by more than 30%, which satisfies the 'at least 25%' threshold.

Because all high-yield cash crop farms met the necessary requirement, all of them must receive the specified bonus in 2025.

Evaluate option choices to find the statement that must be true without external assumptions.

The statement asserting that every high-yield cash crop farm from 2024 qualifies for the 30 percent bonus in 2025 is mathematically and logically sound.

It is a direct deduction requiring no outside information.

Key Concept

Combining conditional rules and factual premises to derive a logically necessary conclusion.

Estimated Time:1m 30s

Question 94Question →

To cut heating costs, the management of a high-rise office complex replaced all single-pane windows with double-pane low-emissivity glass. Although weather conditions over the following winter were identical to those of the previous winter, the building's overall energy consumption for heating increased by 8 percent. The management concluded that the new windows were defective and failed to provide the promised thermal insulation.

Which of the following, if true, most strengthens the conclusion drawn by the building management?

The average internal thermostat settings across all office suites were raised by 3 degrees Celsius during the second winter to accommodate tenant complaints.

Single-pane windows installed in nearby residential apartments required lower maintenance costs over the same period than did the newly installed low-emissivity glass.

A building-wide policy implemented prior to the second winter reduced evening office hours, which under typical operating conditions lowers overall heating energy demand by at least 10 percent.

The manufacturer of the double-pane windows recently introduced a revised installation guide for commercial residential buildings.

The initial purchase cost of the double-pane low-emissivity windows was higher than the management had budgeted for the facility upgrade project.

Show answer & explanation

Answer: A building-wide policy implemented prior to the second winter reduced evening office hours, which under typical operating conditions lowers overall heating energy demand by at least 10 percent.

Answer

The argument is most strengthened by the statement indicating that a building-wide policy reduced evening office hours, which normally lowers heating energy demand by at least 10 percent.

The conclusion asserts that defective window insulation caused an unexpected 8% increase in heating energy consumption despite identical weather conditions. The option stating that evening operating hours were reduced—a change that normally cuts heating demand by 10%—strongly supports the conclusion. If heating demand dropped, energy consumption should have decreased; the fact that it rose by 8% demonstrates an even severe failure in thermal efficiency than the raw figures initially suggested.

Step-by-Step Solution

Deconstruct the argument into premises and conclusion

Premises: Single-pane windows were replaced with double-pane low-emissivity glass; weather conditions were identical across both winters; heating energy consumption increased by 8%. Conclusion: The new windows were defective and failed to insulate properly.

Identifying the core causal claim (defective windows caused increased energy consumption) isolates the logical gap that needs support.

Determine the required strengthening mechanism

To strengthen the conclusion, we must rule out alternative explanations for the energy increase or show that energy consumption should have dropped even further under normal operations.

Demonstrating that operational factors pushed heating demand down makes the actual 8% energy increase even more anomalous and directly attributable to defective window insulation.

Evaluate the impact of reduced operating hours

If reduced operating hours should have lowered heating demand by 10%, an actual increase of 8% represents an 18% net deficit in thermal performance, strongly confirming window defectiveness.

Eliminating operational workload as a driver of energy consumption rules out confounders and confirms the insulating failure.

Key Concept

Strengthening Causal Arguments by Ruling Out Alternative Causes and Establishing Baseline Expectations

Question 95Question →

A shipping port recently installed automated inspection cranes at two of its primary terminals, resulting in a significant reduction in customs clearance delays at those locations. Based on this success, the port authority concludes that installing automated inspection cranes across all remaining terminals will eliminate customs processing backlogs port-wide. Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the port authority's conclusion?

The remaining terminals exclusively process non-standard cargo that requires manual physical inspection regardless of crane automation.

Crane operators at the initial terminals reported a thirty percent increase in hourly container throughput after the automated equipment was installed.

Competing ports in neighboring regions recently upgraded their customs software to accelerate clearance times.

The initial acquisition cost of the automated cranes exceeded the port authority's original budget.

Customs clearance delays contribute more to total container transit times than weather-related shipping delays do.

Show answer & explanation

Answer: The remaining terminals exclusively process non-standard cargo that requires manual physical inspection regardless of crane automation.

Answer

The argument is most seriously weakened by the fact that the remaining terminals process non-standard cargo requiring manual inspection regardless of crane automation.

The author concludes that expanding automated crane installation to remaining terminals will eliminate backlogs, assuming those terminals will experience the same benefits as the first two. The correct option reveals that the remaining terminals handle cargo requiring manual physical inspection regardless of crane automation. Because automated cranes cannot bypass manual inspection requirements, installing them will not eliminate backlogs at those terminals, directly undermining the conclusion.

Step-by-Step Solution

Identify the author's premise and conclusion

Premise: Automated cranes reduced delays at two primary terminals. Conclusion: Installing automated cranes at all remaining terminals will eliminate port-wide backlogs.

Understanding the logic gap between the sample terminals and the remaining terminals is essential for weakening the argument.

Identify the central assumption

The author assumes that the conditions at the remaining terminals are sufficiently similar to those at the test terminals so that automated cranes will yield the same results.

Weakening questions target unstated assumptions that bridge evidence to conclusions.

Select the option that undermines this assumption

Finding that remaining terminals handle cargo requiring manual inspections demonstrates that automated cranes will not resolve backlogs at those locations.

Showing a key difference between the test group and remaining group negates the feasibility of the plan.

Key Concept

Weakening a generalization by demonstrating unrepresentative sample conditions

Question 96Question →

To reduce fuel costs, a regional cargo airline operating primarily in high-altitude mountainous terrain plans to retrofit its turboprop fleet with newly engineered lightweight winglets. Flight tests conducted at sea level demonstrated that these winglets reduced fuel consumption by 8 percent by minimizing aerodynamic drag. Based on these sea-level test results, executives conclude that retrofitting the fleet with these winglets will significantly decrease the carrier's overall fuel expenditure on its mountain routes.

Which of the following, if true, provides the strongest support for the executives' conclusion?

The initial capital expense of acquiring and retrofitting the winglets exceeds the estimated fuel cost savings during the fleet's first year of operation.

Competing cargo carriers operating exclusively on flat coastal routes reported high overall reliability after installing similar winglet modifications.

At high altitudes, lower air density reduces engine efficiency, causing aircraft to burn more fuel per flight hour regardless of winglet installation.

Aerodynamic drag accounts for a greater proportion of total engine workload during flight maneuvers in high-altitude mountain conditions than during sea-level flight.

The price per gallon of aviation fuel in mountain regions is projected to fluctuate at the same rate as the price of fuel in coastal areas.

Show answer & explanation

Answer: Aerodynamic drag accounts for a greater proportion of total engine workload during flight maneuvers in high-altitude mountain conditions than during sea-level flight.

Answer

The argument is most strongly supported by the statement indicating that aerodynamic drag accounts for a greater proportion of total engine workload during flight maneuvers in high-altitude mountain conditions than during sea-level flight.

The correct answer directly connects the premise (sea-level drag reduction) with the target scenario (high-altitude mountain flights). By establishing that aerodynamic drag represents a larger share of engine workload in mountain conditions, it confirms that reducing drag will yield significant fuel savings in the specific environment where the fleet operates.

Step-by-Step Solution

Identify the argument's premises and conclusion.

Premise: Winglets reduced fuel consumption by 8% during tests at sea level by cutting aerodynamic drag. Conclusion: Installing the winglets will significantly cut overall fuel expenditure on high-altitude mountain routes.

Deconstructing the argument reveals the logical gap between sea-level test results and real-world high-altitude performance.

Identify the unstated assumption required for the argument to hold.

The argument assumes that aerodynamic drag reduction observed at sea level remains significant and effective under high-altitude mountain flight conditions.

If high-altitude conditions alter aerodynamic workload, sea-level results might not guarantee expected savings.

Evaluate the answer choices to find the statement that confirms or enhances this core connection.

Showing that aerodynamic drag plays an even larger role in engine workload at high altitudes validates and strengthens the assumption that drag-reducing winglets will generate substantial fuel savings on mountain routes.

Direct evidence confirming the relevance of drag reduction in the target operating environment directly strengthens the conclusion.

Key Concept

Strengthening Arguments by Confirming Key Assumptions across Environments

Question 97Question →

To combat severe peak-hour traffic congestion on the city's central highway, municipal planners plan to convert one of the four existing traffic lanes in each direction into a dedicated lane for high-speed express commuter buses. Planners estimate that the increased speed and reliability of these express buses will convince 20 percent of current private automobile commuters to switch to public transit, thereby significantly reducing overall highway traffic congestion during peak commuting hours.

Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the municipal planners' argument?

Recent municipal surveys indicate that over 30 percent of current automobile commuters would willingly switch to public transit if express travel times were guaranteed.

Converting one of the four traffic lanes in each direction into a dedicated bus lane reduces the highway capacity for remaining private vehicles by 25 percent, exacerbating bottleneck delays for those vehicles.

The new high-speed express buses will produce slightly higher per-vehicle carbon emissions than the standard buses currently operating on city streets.

The operational maintenance costs for the express bus fleet will require an increase in municipal transit fares after the first year of service.

A portion of the ridership on the new express buses will consist of commuters who previously traveled during off-peak hours.

Show answer & explanation

Answer: Converting one of the four traffic lanes in each direction into a dedicated bus lane reduces the highway capacity for remaining private vehicles by 25 percent, exacerbating bottleneck delays for those vehicles.

Answer

The argument is most seriously weakened by the evidence that converting an existing lane reduces highway vehicle capacity for private automobiles by 25 percent, which exceeds the 20 percent reduction in vehicle volume and thus increases overall bottleneck delays.

The correct answer identifies a fatal flaw in the plan's mathematical trade-off. Converting 1 out of 4 lanes reduces capacity for general traffic by 25 percent (

1/4

). Even if 20 percent of automobile drivers switch to buses, the remaining 80 percent of traffic must fit into 75 percent of the original road capacity. As a result, congestion per available lane actually increases, directly refuting the claim that overall traffic congestion will decrease.

Step-by-Step Solution

Identify the conclusion and underlying premises of the argument.

Premise: Converting 1 of 4 existing lanes to a dedicated bus lane will attract 20% of automobile commuters to express buses. Conclusion: Overall highway traffic congestion during peak hours will decrease significantly.

Understanding the precise link between premise (volume reduction) and conclusion (congestion reduction) reveals key unstated assumptions about highway capacity.

Identify the core unstated assumption.

The argument assumes that removing 20% of vehicle drivers will decrease congestion despite taking away 1 out of 4 general lanes (a 25% drop in general capacity).

A plan to reduce congestion by taking away existing road capacity fails if the reduction in road capacity exceeds the reduction in vehicle volume.

Evaluate the answer choices to find the statement that undermines this assumption.

The option pointing out that dedicated lane conversion cuts general traffic capacity by 25% demonstrates that remaining traffic will experience worse bottlenecking, directly counteracting the 20% volume drop.

Showing that net throughput capacity falls faster than demand volume invalidates the claim that traffic congestion will decrease.

Key Concept

Plan-to-Goal Feasibility & Capacity Offsets

Question 98Question →

A corporate logistics firm plans to reduce carbon emissions by replacing its fleet of diesel trucks with electric vehicles. Management argues that because the local electricity grid is powered primarily by zero-emission hydroelectric dams, this fleet transition will eliminate the company's net greenhouse gas emissions from freight transportation. Evaluate whether the following claim is a necessary unstated assumption of the management's argument: The total lifecycle emissions generated during the manufacturing and disposal of the electric vehicle fleet will not exceed the operational emissions produced by the existing diesel fleet over the same period.

True

False

Show answer & explanation

Answer: True

Answer

True. The claim represents a necessary unstated assumption required for the argument's conclusion to hold.

The author concludes that replacing diesel trucks with electric vehicles will eliminate net greenhouse gas emissions from freight transportation, relying solely on the premise that the electricity used during operation comes from zero-emission hydroelectric dams. For the total net emissions to be eliminated, non-operational sources of emissions associated with the new fleet—specifically manufacturing and disposal—must not outweigh the operational emissions saved by abandoning diesel. Negating the statement establishes that manufacturing and disposal emissions would exceed diesel operational emissions, which directly contradicts the claim that net emissions will be eliminated. Therefore, the argument depends on this unstated assumption.

Step-by-Step Solution

Deconstruct the argument into premise and conclusion.

Premise: The electricity grid powering the new electric vehicles relies on zero-emission hydroelectric energy. Conclusion: Replacing diesel trucks with electric vehicles will eliminate net greenhouse gas emissions from freight transportation.

Isolating the core argument components allows identification of structural gaps between the premise and conclusion.

Apply the Negation Test to the proposed assumption.

Negated claim: The total lifecycle emissions generated during manufacturing and disposal of the electric vehicle fleet WILL exceed the operational emissions of the diesel fleet over the same period.

If the logically negated form of a statement logically destroys the conclusion, that statement is a necessary assumption.

Evaluate the impact of the negated statement on the author's conclusion.

If producing and disposing of electric vehicles creates more emissions than operating diesel trucks saves, net emissions from freight transportation will increase rather than reach zero.

The claim of total net emission elimination fails entirely if unmeasured non-operational stages produce a net surge in emissions.

Key Concept

Identifying Unstated Assumptions via the Negation Test

Question 99Question →

A city plans to introduce high-speed automated optical sorting machines at its primary municipal recycling facility to process post-consumer textile waste. Currently, textile recycling is limited because manual sorting cannot efficiently distinguish between pure cotton and synthetic-blend fabrics. City officials claim that deploying these optical sorters will double the annual volume of pure cotton recovered and sold to textile manufacturers. Which of the following, if true, provides the strongest support for the city officials' claim?

Operating high-speed optical sorting machines requires frequent calibration stops that reduce the facility's total daily processing hours.

The volume of textile waste delivered to the facility currently contains more than enough uncollected pure cotton to support a doubling of recovered output.

Textile manufacturers have recently increased their demand for recycled synthetic fibers to produce athletic performance apparel.

Manual sorting techniques for paper and plastic recycling in the same facility achieved high purity rates prior to automation.

The municipal recycling facility was originally constructed to handle only rigid plastics and glass containers.

Show answer & explanation

Answer: The volume of textile waste delivered to the facility currently contains more than enough uncollected pure cotton to support a doubling of recovered output.

Answer

The argument is most strengthened by establishing that the incoming waste stream contains a sufficient volume of pure cotton to allow the recovered output to double.

The city officials' claim relies on the assumption that the main bottleneck to recovering pure cotton is sorting efficiency rather than raw supply. Showing that incoming waste already contains sufficient pure cotton eliminates the possibility of a supply shortage, thereby directly strengthening the conclusion that output can double.

Step-by-Step Solution

Identify the premise and conclusion of the argument.

Premise: Manual sorting fails to distinguish pure cotton from synthetic blends. Conclusion: Automated optical sorting will double the volume of pure cotton recovered and sold.

Understanding the logic gap helps determine what assumption or missing link is necessary to support the conclusion.

Evaluate potential weaknesses or unstated assumptions in the reasoning.

The argument assumes that technology is the only limiting factor. If incoming waste lacks enough pure cotton, improved sorting technology alone cannot double output.

A valid strengthening statement must address a potential bottleneck or validate a core underlying assumption.

Select the option that confirms the necessary supply condition.

Confirming that the raw waste already contains enough uncollected pure cotton proves that doubling output is physically viable.

This directly strengthens the feasibility of the city officials' claim.

Key Concept

Strengthening Causal & Plan-Based Arguments by Confirming Key Assumptions

Question 100Question →

To combat the depletion of its primary freshwater aquifer, a coastal agricultural district plans to install solar-powered desalination micro-turbines along drainage channels. These turbines will convert brackish surface runoff into water suitable for crop irrigation. District officials project that because the converted water will meet 35 percent of the district's current annual irrigation volume, agricultural pumpage from the aquifer will decrease significantly over the next five years.

Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the district officials' projection?

Farmers in the district plan to use the converted runoff to cultivate high-yield crop varieties that require routine soil flushing with pure freshwater from the aquifer to prevent salt buildup.

The solar-powered turbines operate at maximum output during peak summer months when crop water demand and aquifer drawdown are highest.

The initial capital cost of purchasing and installing the micro-turbines will not be fully recouped by farmers within the five-year projection period.

Desalination facilities operating in adjacent inland agricultural districts rely on electrical grid power rather than solar energy.

Organic sediments present in brackish surface runoff slightly decrease the operational lifespan of the micro-turbine filtration membranes.

Show answer & explanation

Answer: Farmers in the district plan to use the converted runoff to cultivate high-yield crop varieties that require routine soil flushing with pure freshwater from the aquifer to prevent salt buildup.

Answer

The argument is most seriously weakened by the finding that using converted brackish runoff requires farmers to routinely flush soil with pure freshwater drawn from the aquifer. This unstated operational side effect directly undermines the expected net reduction in aquifer pumpage.

The correct answer identifies an unintended operational consequence: using desalinated brackish water increases salt accumulation in soil, which in turn requires farmers to pump pure freshwater from the aquifer to flush the crops. This extra freshwater demand counteracts the projected 35 percent savings, severely undermining the claim that total aquifer pumpage will decrease.

Step-by-Step Solution

Deconstruct the core argument

Premise: Micro-turbines will supply desalinated runoff equal to 35% of current irrigation volume. Conclusion: Aquifer pumpage will decrease significantly over the next five years.

Identifying the premise-to-conclusion leap reveals the author's unstated assumption that total freshwater demand from the aquifer will drop proportionately to the new water supply.

Identify the unstated assumption and vulnerability

The argument assumes that introducing desalinated runoff will not trigger secondary actions or requirements that increase freshwater consumption from the aquifer.

Weakening questions for plan-to-goal arguments often rely on identifying unexpected secondary consequences that negate the goal.

Evaluate the choices for logical impact

The finding that farmers must flush fields with aquifer freshwater to mitigate salt buildup from the converted runoff demonstrates that using the new water source directly causes additional freshwater pumpage, invalidating the net savings projection.

This provides new empirical evidence directly attacking the central assumption of net pumpage reduction.

Key Concept

Evaluating Plan Feasibility and Counterproductive Side Effects

Estimated Time:2m 0s

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