Match each argument below to the specific description of the causal flaw it commits.
- A review of corporate financial records shows that companies whose executives go on frequent luxury retreats tend to report the highest annual revenues. A consultant concludes that sending executives on luxury retreats directly boosts corporate revenue.Confuses a causal relationship in which the effect is mistaken for the cause.
- Park rangers have recorded that on days with a high number of squirrel sightings near the visitor center, there is a correspondingly high volume of ice cream sales at the concession stand. The rangers hypothesize that seeing squirrels prompts visitors to buy ice cream.Fails to consider that two correlated phenomena may both be caused by an unstated third factor.
- The university's debate team went on a ten-match winning streak immediately after the debate hall's carpets were changed from blue to red. The team captain attributes their improved performance entirely to the new carpet color.Infers a causal relationship merely from the sequential occurrence of two events.
- A sociologist noted that over the last twenty years, the national rate of per capita cheese consumption has risen and fallen in exact synchronization with the number of patents filed for mechanical engineering designs. The sociologist concludes that consuming cheese stimulates engineering innovation.Treats a correlation that is likely the result of mere coincidence as evidence of a causal relationship.
Answer
The corporate retreats argument matches the reverse causation flaw; the squirrel argument matches the third factor flaw; the debate team argument matches the sequential occurrence flaw; and the cheese consumption argument matches the mere coincidence flaw.
Each argument represents a distinct variant of the correlation-to-causation fallacy. The corporate argument exhibits reverse causation (wealth allows retreats). The park argument ignores a third variable (weather). The debate argument relies on timeline (post hoc fallacy). The cheese argument assumes causality for a purely spurious statistical alignment.
Step-by-Step Solution
Key Concept
Correlation vs. Causation