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Difficulty: MediumCorrelation vs. Causation

Music Critic: A comprehensive analysis of major symphony orchestras over the last twenty years shows a strong statistical correlation between the frequency of an orchestra playing contemporary compositions and an increase in their annual subscription renewals. Therefore, it is clear that scheduling more contemporary pieces causes audiences to become more loyal and renew their subscriptions.

Which of the following, if true, provide a valid alternative explanation for the correlation that weakens the critic's argument? (Select all that apply)

  1. Orchestras that experience an increase in subscription renewals enjoy larger budgets, which allows them to afford the high licensing fees required to perform contemporary compositions.Answer
  2. A renewed cultural interest in local arts initiatives in certain cities has simultaneously driven both higher orchestra subscription rates and a public demand for avant-garde, contemporary programming.Answer
  3. C
    The percentage of contemporary compositions performed has increased, but the absolute number of contemporary pieces available to orchestras has remained exactly the same.
  4. D
    Orchestras that focus exclusively on traditional, older repertoire have seen a steady decline in their annual subscription renewals over the same period.
  5. E
    Audiences who regularly attend symphony orchestra performances are generally highly educated and have higher disposable incomes than the general population.

Answer

The correct options are the one describing orchestras with increased renewals affording licensing fees (reverse causality) and the one citing a renewed cultural interest driving both factors (third variable).
The argument incorrectly assumes that because two phenomena are correlated, one must cause the other. To weaken this causal claim, one must provide an alternative explanation for the correlation. The correct answers do this by providing a reverse causality scenario (increased renewals lead to more contemporary pieces because of larger budgets) and a third-variable scenario (a general cultural interest causes both).

Step-by-Step Solution

1
Analyze the argument's structure.
Premise: Correlation between contemporary compositions and subscription renewals. Conclusion: Contemporary compositions cause increased subscription renewals.
Identifying the premise and conclusion is necessary to understand the core reasoning flaw.
2
Identify the logical flaw.
The argument assumes causation based solely on correlation.
Recognizing that correlation does not imply causation allows us to anticipate how to weaken the argument.
3
Determine what would weaken the causal claim.
An alternative explanation for the correlation, such as reverse causality or a third common cause, would weaken the conclusion.
The question asks for valid alternative explanations that undermine the stated cause-and-effect relationship.
4
Evaluate the options against the anticipated weakeners.
The option about larger budgets causing orchestras to afford contemporary pieces shows reverse causation. The option about renewed cultural interest shows a third common cause.
Selecting the options that successfully demonstrate these alternative explanations fulfills the requirements of the question.

Key Concept

Correlation vs. Causation
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Topics

Correlation vs. Causation

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