Below are four brief arguments, each containing a specific logical vulnerability related to cause and effect. Pair each argument with the analytical description that accurately diagnoses its causal flaw.
- An analysis of municipal records shows that neighborhoods with a high concentration of coffee shops also have exceptionally high rates of bicycle theft. Therefore, the presence of coffee shops must attract bicycle thieves to the area.Infers a direct causal link between two phenomena while neglecting the possibility that an underlying third factor independently produces both.
- Patients diagnosed with the rare joint condition known as Zeno's syndrome consistently exhibit unusually high levels of calcium in their blood. Therefore, excessive blood calcium levels must be the cause of Zeno's syndrome.Concludes that one condition produces another when the observed correlation could just as easily be explained by the second condition producing the first.
- Immediately after the municipal government installed new energy-efficient streetlights downtown, local businesses reported a significant surge in retail sales. The new lighting clearly encouraged more people to shop in the district.Takes for granted that because a particular event followed closely upon another, the earlier event was responsible for the later one.
- Every time the primary coolant valve malfunctions, the reactor's core temperature exceeds safe limits. Thus, by simply upgrading the primary coolant valve to prevent it from malfunctioning, we can guarantee that the reactor's core temperature will remain within safe limits.Treats the elimination of one known catalyst for a specific outcome as sufficient to guarantee that the outcome will be entirely prevented.
Cevap
Match the coffee shop argument to the third-factor flaw; the Zeno's syndrome argument to the reverse-causality flaw; the streetlight argument to the time-sequence flaw; and the reactor argument to the single-cause assumption flaw.
Each argument represents a distinct, classic causal fallacy tested on the LSAT. The coffee shop argument fails to account for a common cause (third factor). The Zeno's syndrome argument arbitrarily assigns a direction to a correlation (reverse causality). The streetlight argument mistakes sequence for consequence (time sequence). The reactor argument mistakes a sufficient cause for a necessary one (eliminating one cause).
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Identifying Formal Causal Fallacies
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