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Zorluk: Çok zorCorrelation vs. Causation

Recent excavations of ancient Kura Valley settlements reveal a striking pattern: archaeological sites containing high concentrations of intricate decorative pottery invariably also contain massive caches of specialized military weaponry. In contrast, settlements characterized by unadorned, purely functional pottery are remarkably devoid of such weapons. Concluding that the intense societal dedication required to produce intricate art inherently fostered a militaristic cultural temperament, the lead archaeologist asserts that this artistic focus directly propelled these societies into frequent warfare.

Which one of the following most accurately describes a flaw in the archaeologist's reasoning?

  1. ignores the possibility that the co-occurrence of the two distinct types of artifacts is entirely attributable to a third factor that independently caused bothCevap
  2. B
    draws a conclusion about the cultural temperament of an entire society based on artifact evidence that may only represent a specialized subgroup within that society
  3. C
    confuses a condition that is sufficient to establish the presence of a militaristic cultural temperament with a condition that is necessary for frequent warfare
  4. D
    presumes that a higher absolute number of military weapons found at a site definitively corresponds to a greater proportion of the population engaging in warfare
  5. E
    evaluates the function of the unadorned pottery without addressing whether the functional pottery was produced during the same time period as the intricate pottery

Cevap

The argument ignores the possibility that the co-occurrence of the two distinct types of artifacts is entirely attributable to a third factor that independently caused both.
The argument observes that two phenomena—intricate pottery and military weaponry—are found together. From this mere correlation, the archaeologist concludes that one caused the other (artistic dedication caused militarism). The correct answer properly identifies this flawed reasoning by pointing out that the author failed to consider a common cause; for example, a thriving economy might independently provide both the leisure time for specialized artisans and the resources for a professional military, meaning neither artifact caused the presence of the other.

Adım Adım Çözüm

1
Analyze the premises to identify the evidence provided.
The evidence is a strong correlation: sites with intricate pottery also have military weapons, while sites without such pottery lack weapons.
Understanding the nature of the evidence is the first step in analyzing the argument's structure.
2
Identify the main conclusion drawn from this evidence.
The conclusion is causal: producing intricate art fostered a militaristic temperament and directly caused frequent warfare.
Isolating the conclusion allows for comparison between what is proven and what is claimed.
3
Evaluate the relationship between the premises and the conclusion to find the logical gap.
The argument takes a correlation (A and B happen together) and concludes a specific causal direction (A caused B).
This is the core task of a Flaw in the Reasoning question.
4
Identify the abstract description of this specific logical gap.
The author fails to consider alternative causal explanations for the correlation, specifically that a third variable (like surplus wealth or central governance) might have caused both the development of art and the accumulation of weapons.
LSAT flaw answers typically describe the fallacy in abstract, structural terms.

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Correlation vs. Causation
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Correlation vs. Causation

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