Critical Reasoning: Argument Evaluation

Municipal planners in City K recently installed permeable asphalt along downtown sidewalks to reduce surface runoff during storm events. During the first rainy season following installation, measured runoff volume entering the local river decreased by 30 percent compared to the historical seasonal average. The planners concluded that expanding the installation of permeable asphalt throughout all municipal districts will significantly mitigate urban flooding during future severe storms.

Which of the following, if true, provides the strongest support for the municipal planners' conclusion?

To protect centuries-old parchment manuscripts from humidity-induced decay, the curators of a national archive recently replaced the facility's traditional refrigeration-based cooling coils with advanced chemical desiccant air-drying units. Over the six months following the replacement, sensor logs confirmed that relative humidity in the vault remained perfectly stabilized within the ideal target range of 45% to 50%. Nevertheless, physical inspections conducted at the end of the period revealed that the rate of structural fiber cracking on the parchment manuscripts was twice as high as it had been during the six months prior to the equipment change. Concluding that the new desiccant units were directly responsible for the accelerated deterioration, the lead conservator recommended re-installing the original refrigeration-based system.

Which of the following, if true, most strengthens the lead conservator's argument?

Prior to 2022, any corporate entity acquiring more than a 15 percent stake in a domestic renewable energy producer in Nation X was subject to mandatory federal antitrust review unless the acquiring entity was a state-backed entity. In 2022, Nation X amended its regulations such that all corporate acquisitions of domestic energy producers, regardless of the acquiring entity's state-backed status or stake size, require mandatory federal antitrust review if the target firm holds exclusive regional distribution rights. Last year, Solis Corp, a private non-state-backed corporation, acquired a 12 percent stake in Terra Energy, a domestic renewable energy producer in Nation X, without undergoing a federal antitrust review.

Which of the following statements must be true based on the information provided above? Select all that apply.

A renewable energy company recently installed ultrasonic anti-scaling transducers along the fluid conduits of its geothermal power plant. Management hypothesized that high-frequency sound waves from these devices would prevent mineral deposits from adhering to the interior of heat exchanger pipes, thereby eliminating the need for periodic chemical cleaning shutdowns. Over the subsequent six-month evaluation period, the plant operated continuously without requiring a single descaling shutdown, and net electricity output remained constant. Management concluded that the ultrasonic transducers were directly responsible for preventing mineral scale accumulation during this period.

Which of the following, if true, most strengthens management's conclusion?

To reduce traffic congestion during peak hours, a city council plans to eliminate free on-street parking in the financial district and implement hourly parking fees. Council members claim this policy will encourage commuters to switch to public transit, thereby decreasing the total number of cars entering the area each morning. Which of the following would be most useful to evaluate in order to determine whether the city council's plan will succeed?

Archaeologists analyzing high-resolution synthetic aperture radar imagery of the Eastern Desert observed subsurface linear anomalies near ancient copper mines. Carbon dating of organic residue in nearby soil strata dates to the 12th century BCE. The researchers concluded that these linear anomalies represent buried irrigation canals constructed specifically to support the agricultural needs of the mining settlements.

Which of the following, if true, provides the strongest support for the researchers' conclusion?

A technology company recently introduced an asynchronous communication policy, replacing mandatory daily team meetings with written status updates. Over the subsequent twelve months, the average time required for the software development team to complete project features decreased by 35 percent. The director of operations concluded that eliminating daily meetings directly caused the reduction in feature completion time by minimizing workplace disruptions. Which of the following would be most useful to determine in evaluating the director of operations' conclusion?

A regional agricultural board planned to reduce crop losses caused by the invasive stem borer beetle by introducing a parasitic wasp species known to prey exclusively on stem borer larvae. In field trial plots located in low-altitude valleys, the wasp was released, and stem borer larva populations dropped by $70\%$ within one season, leading to a substantial decrease in crop damage. Based on these results, the board concluded that releasing the wasp regionally will reliably protect crops from stem borer damage across all commercial farming zones in the region. Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the agricultural board's argument?

Three months ago, a citrus orchard manager introduced a species of non-stinging predatory mite to combat Asian citrus psyllids, insects that transmit a destructive bacterial disease to orange trees. Over the subsequent three-month period, the population of Asian citrus psyllids in the orchard decreased by 60 percent. Based on this outcome, the manager concluded that the introduction of the predatory mites was responsible for the decline in the psyllid population.

Which of the following, if true, provides the strongest support for the manager's conclusion?

To reduce agricultural nitrate pollution in local river systems, a regional water district plans to install floating artificial wetlands across its primary collection reservoirs. Critics argue that because the wetland plants enter dormancy during the winter—the season when agricultural runoff peaks—the system will fail to reduce nitrate levels when treatment is most needed. Nevertheless, environmental engineers maintain that installing these floating wetlands will substantially reduce the total annual amount of nitrates reaching the rivers. Which of the following, if true, provides the strongest support for the environmental engineers' prediction?

A local coffee shop owner plans to increase total monthly profits by raising the price of all specialty espresso drinks by 10 percent. The owner reasons that because demand for specialty drinks has remained steady over the past year, customers will continue to buy the exact same quantity of drinks despite the price increase.

Which of the following would be most useful to evaluate the validity of the coffee shop owner's argument?

Hospitals in competitive metropolitan areas frequently suffer substantial revenue loss when surgical procedures are delayed due to sterilizer equipment failure. To eliminate these losses, a regional hospital network plans to replace all of its steam-autoclave sterilizers with modern hydrogen peroxide gas plasma units. Because gas plasma units complete a sterilization cycle in one-third the time required by steam autoclaves, hospital administrators conclude that adopting gas plasma units will virtually eliminate surgical delays caused by equipment unavailability.

Which of the following, if true, most seriously undermines the hospital administrators' conclusion?

A major commercial airline plans to retrofit its long-haul passenger fleet with lightweight carbon-fiber seating frames to reduce overall aircraft weight and lower fuel expenditures over the next five years. Management reasons that because jet fuel represents over thirty percent of total operating expenses, achieving a ten percent reduction in cabin weight will generate substantial net financial savings, even after accounting for the initial capital costs of purchasing and installing the new seats.

Which of the following, if true, most seriously undermines the reasoning behind the airline management's plan?

In 2024, a major city launched a public transit initiative that made bus travel entirely free for all residents. Transportation officials expected this program to significantly reduce traffic congestion on city roads by encouraging drivers to leave their personal vehicles at home. However, six months after the policy took effect, traffic congestion on major roadways remained virtually unchanged, despite municipal transit data showing a fifty percent increase in total bus ridership.

Which of the following, if true, most helps to explain the apparent discrepancy described above?

Consider the following argument: A regional hospital system plans to replace all traditional brass door handles across its facilities with handles coated in a novel antimicrobial polymer coating in order to reduce patient infection rates. Hospital administrators reason that because laboratory tests demonstrate the polymer kills 99 percent of surface bacteria within fifteen minutes of contact, installing these coated handles will significantly decrease the incidence of hospital-acquired infections.

True or False: Determining whether the routine chemical cleaning solutions used by hospital sanitation staff rapidly degrade the antimicrobial efficacy of the polymer coating upon contact constitutes a valid application of the Test of Variance for evaluating the validity of the administrators' argument.

To reduce annual operational expenditures, the municipal water authority of Oakhaven plans to install acoustic sensor networks along its underground pipeline grid. The authority reasons that because these sensors detect acoustic frequencies generated by micro-leaks long before water breaches the surface, maintenance crews can repair small pipe fractures early, thereby significantly lowering total water loss costs and expensive emergency excavation expenses.

Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the municipal water authority's argument?

A municipal council recently planted thousands of fast-growing shade trees along residential streets with the goal of lowering household summer electricity bills. Council members reasoned that by shielding home roofs and exterior walls from direct sunlight during peak afternoon hours, the trees would significantly reduce the need for indoor air conditioning.

Which of the following, if true, most strongly supports the council members' reasoning?

Art historians recently analyzed a 14th-century illuminated codex of previously unknown origin and hypothesized that it was illuminated at Monastery X rather than at neighboring Monastery Y. In support of this hypothesis, the historians noted that chemical analysis of the blue pigment in the codex's illustrations revealed a specific trace ratio of mineral impurities identical to that of lapis lazuli imports recorded exclusively in Monastery X's financial ledgers from that era. Which of the following, if true, provides the strongest support for the historians' hypothesis?

During a three-year conservation project in Park Z, field researchers tracked native animal populations. The researchers found that whenever the population of wild rabbits decreased below 1,000 individuals, the population of red foxes consistently declined in the following year. Conversely, in years when the rabbit population was at or above 1,000, the red fox population never declined in the following year. Throughout both the second and third years of the project, the red fox population in Park Z experienced a decline. If the statements above are true, which of the following must also be true?

Read the following short argument and match each boldfaced statement to its specific structural role within the overall argument:

Telemedicine services expanded rapidly during recent public health initiatives. Many healthcare analysts predicted that this expansion would permanently reduce hospital emergency room visits. However, recent hospital administration data indicates that emergency room visits have returned to pre-expansion levels. Consequently, the expansion of telemedicine has not reduced the overall demand for emergency hospital care.

Match each boldfaced statement on the left with its corresponding role on the right.