Historian: Records from the 18th century indicate that cities with a high number of public libraries also reported significantly higher rates of political unrest compared to cities with few or no public libraries. Clearly, the ideas disseminated through materials in these libraries fostered dissatisfaction with the government, thereby directly fueling political instability.
The reasoning in the historian's argument is most vulnerable to criticism on the grounds that the argument does which one of the following?
- Aillogically presumes that if the dissemination of subversive ideas causes political instability, then all political instability must be caused by the dissemination of such ideas.
- fails to consider that the observed correlation may be entirely explained by a separate factor that caused both the establishment of public libraries and the occurrence of political unrest.Cevap
- Crelies on historical records that may not have accurately documented the true extent of political unrest in cities without public libraries.
- Dconfuses the rate of political unrest in a city with the absolute number of political uprisings that occurred there.
- Emistakes the intermediate claim that ideas foster dissatisfaction for the ultimate conclusion that public libraries fuel political instability.
Cevap
The argument fails to consider that the observed correlation may be entirely explained by a separate factor that caused both the establishment of public libraries and the occurrence of political unrest.
The correct answer accurately diagnoses the fundamental error in the historian's argument: jumping from a correlation (libraries and unrest existing together) to a strict causal conclusion (libraries caused the unrest). By ignoring alternative explanations, specifically that a third, unstated factor might be responsible for both phenomena, the argument's reasoning is deeply flawed.
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Causal Flaws: Third Variable / Common Cause
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