Match each argument below to the specific causal reasoning flaw it commits.
- An analysis of tech startups reveals that companies offering comprehensive on-site wellness facilities report substantially higher quarterly revenues than those without. Therefore, providing on-site wellness amenities directly increases a startup's financial earnings.Ignores the possibility that an unstated third condition is responsible for producing both of the observed phenomena.
- Clinical observations reveal that individuals who purchase specialty orthopedic shoes suffer from foot pain much more frequently than those who wear standard footwear. It is evident that wearing specialty orthopedic shoes leads to foot ailments.Infers that a particular phenomenon is the cause of a specific condition, when the condition itself is likely the cause of the phenomenon.
- Over the past ten years, the number of successful theatrical productions in the city has increased in precise tandem with the number of feral cats adopted from local shelters. The adoption of feral cats must somehow stimulate the local theater economy.Treats two phenomena as causally linked despite the strong likelihood that their simultaneous occurrence is purely coincidental.
Cevap
The startup argument ignores a third condition; the orthopedic shoe argument reverses cause and effect; the theater and cats argument assumes causation from a coincidence.
Each argument represents a distinct subset of the correlation-causation fallacy. The first argument ignores a common cause (existing company wealth). The second argument reverses the causal arrow (pain causes the shoe purchase, not vice versa). The third argument forces a causal link onto a random statistical coincidence.
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Variations of Correlation vs. Causation Flaws
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