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Soru

Zorluk: ZorCorrelation vs. Causation

Urban Planner: A comprehensive review of our city's districts reveals a clear pattern. The neighborhoods boasting the highest concentration of community-funded street murals consistently experience the lowest rates of property crime. Therefore, to effectively combat property crime in our most vulnerable districts, the city council should allocate significant funding to commission new street murals in those areas.

Which of the following, if true, provides an alternative explanation for the observed correlation that exposes a flaw in the planner's causal reasoning? (Select all that apply)

  1. Neighborhoods with active neighborhood watch programs and strong civic participation are both highly effective at deterring property crime and more likely to successfully organize mural projects.Cevap
  2. Community art organizations strongly prefer to initiate and fund street mural projects in neighborhoods that already boast exceptionally low property crime rates to protect their investments.Cevap
  3. C
    When new street murals are completed, local law enforcement often temporarily increases patrols in the immediate vicinity to prevent vandalism of the artwork.
  4. D
    The total number of property crimes across the entire city has remained relatively stable over the past five years, even as the overall number of street murals has doubled.
  5. E
    Most of the neighborhoods with high concentrations of street murals have smaller total populations than the city's most vulnerable districts.

Cevap

The correct selections are the options indicating that civic participation drives both factors, and that art organizations intentionally choose low-crime areas for murals.
Both correct options successfully weaken the argument by providing alternative explanations for the observed correlation. One introduces a 'third variable'—active civic participation—that independently causes both high mural concentration and low crime rates. The other introduces 'reverse causality', suggesting that low crime rates attract murals, proving that adding murals to a high-crime area would not necessarily lower crime.

Adım Adım Çözüm

1
Identify the argument's core structure.
Premise: Correlation between street murals and low crime rates. Conclusion: Funding street murals will reduce crime.
Deconstructing the argument is necessary to evaluate the relationship between evidence and conclusion.
2
Identify the logical flaw.
The planner assumes a causal relationship (murals cause crime reduction) based solely on an observed correlation.
Recognizing the 'correlation vs. causation' flaw directs the search for alternative explanations.
3
Evaluate options for alternative causal pathways.
Identify options that explain the correlation through a third common cause or reverse causality.
Valid alternative explanations weaken the argument by showing the planner's assumed causal link is not the only reasonable interpretation of the data.

Anahtar Kavram

Correlation vs. Causation
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Correlation vs. Causation

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