Soru

Zorluk: OrtaCorrelation vs. Causation

Nutritionist: A recent study of dietary habits in over fifty countries revealed a striking pattern: populations that consume high amounts of culinary spices tend to have significantly lower rates of cardiovascular disease than populations that consume very few spices. Therefore, adding more spices to one's diet is an effective way to decrease the risk of developing cardiovascular disease.

The reasoning in the nutritionist's argument is most vulnerable to criticism on the grounds that the argument

  1. infers a causal relationship between two phenomena solely on the basis of an observed statistical association between themCevap
  2. B
    fails to distinguish between the main conclusion regarding dietary habits and a subsidiary conclusion used to support it
  3. C
    treats a condition that is merely sufficient to decrease the risk of a disease as if it were necessary to decrease that risk
  4. D
    draws a conclusion about the absolute number of people with cardiovascular disease from evidence concerning proportional rates
  5. E
    presumes, without providing justification, that what is true of a population as a whole must be true of each individual member of that population

Cevap

The correct answer is the option stating that the argument infers a causal relationship between two phenomena solely on the basis of an observed statistical association between them.
The argument observes a statistical correlation between high spice consumption and lower rates of cardiovascular disease within certain populations. From this mere correlation, the nutritionist concludes that consuming more spices actively causes a decrease in cardiovascular disease risk. This is a classic causal flaw, as the argument fails to consider alternative explanations, such as a third factor (e.g., overall climate, lifestyle, or other dietary components common in spice-consuming regions) that could be responsible for the lower disease rates.

Adım Adım Çözüm

1
Identify the core premise and the main conclusion of the argument.
Premise: Populations consuming high amounts of spices have lower rates of cardiovascular disease. Conclusion: Adding spices to the diet decreases the risk of cardiovascular disease.
Breaking down the argument into its structural components is essential for spotting logical gaps.
2
Analyze the relationship between the premise and the conclusion.
The premise establishes a statistical correlation (high spice intake is associated with lower disease rates). The conclusion makes a definitive causal claim (spices directly cause the reduction in risk).
Identifying the leap from correlation to causation reveals the primary logical flaw in the reasoning.
3
Evaluate the answer choices to find the one that accurately describes this specific logical error.
The correct choice must point out that the argument takes an observed correlation to be sufficient evidence of a causal relationship, ignoring alternative explanations.
This directly answers the prompt by identifying the argument's most serious vulnerability.

Anahtar Kavram

Correlation vs. Causation Flaw
Bu soruyu puanla