Below are four excerpts from public policy and academic debates. Each excerpt contains a distinct flaw involving causal reasoning. Match each excerpt to the abstract description that most accurately identifies its specific logical error.
- Educational Researcher: Our data reveals that school districts allocating the largest portion of their budgets to anti-truancy initiatives paradoxically experience the highest rates of unexcused student absences. Thus, these anti-truancy programs must be inadvertently alienating students and causing them to skip school.Infers that an action causes a specific condition, overlooking the strong probability that the pre-existing condition was actually the motivation for taking the action.
- Sociologist: A comprehensive global analysis demonstrates a strong statistical link between a nation's per capita consumption of imported luxury textiles and its citizens' average life expectancy. This suggests that access to high-quality clothing significantly extends human longevity.Takes for granted that one phenomenon directly causes another, failing to consider that both phenomena may simply be independent effects of an underlying third variable.
- Historian: Between 1850 and 1900, the population of wild horses in North America steadily declined, a period that perfectly aligns with the gradual decrease in the average size of the European aristocracy. It is clear that the dwindling supply of wild horses led to the contraction of the European noble class.Treats a parallel direction of change in two completely isolated, long-term historical phenomena as definitive proof that one is driving the other.
- Business Analyst: Immediately after the retail chain implemented a new computerized inventory management system, their overall profit margins increased by 12% in the following quarter. The new software is clearly responsible for this boost in profitability.Concludes that a specific intervention caused a subsequent outcome merely because it preceded it, ignoring other unstated variables that might have been introduced concurrently.
Cevap
The Educational Researcher excerpt matches with the reverse causality description. The Sociologist excerpt matches with the third-variable common cause description. The Historian excerpt matches with the coincidental long-term trend description. The Business Analyst excerpt matches with the chronological succession (post hoc) description.
Each abstract description perfectly captures the precise mechanics of the flawed causal reasoning presented in its corresponding excerpt. The matches correctly distinguish between reverse causation (programs vs. truancy), third-variable causation (textiles vs. longevity), mere coincidence (horses vs. aristocracy), and temporal precedence (software vs. profits).
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Anahtar Kavram
Distinguishing between nuanced variations of causal reasoning flaws, including reverse causality, third-variable causation, coincidental correlation, and post hoc reasoning.