Strengthening Arguments

21 soru

Soru 1Soru

A municipal power authority introduced automated smart meters across residential districts to detect voltage anomalies and isolate localized power outages automatically. During the six months following installation, the total duration of power outages experienced by residents in these districts decreased by 35 percent compared to the same period in previous years. Municipal officials concluded that the automatic anomaly detection of the smart meters was directly responsible for reducing outage durations.

Which of the following, if true, provides the strongest support for the municipal officials' conclusion?

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Cevap: During the six-month period following installation, the region experienced weather patterns and storm frequencies typical of previous years.

Cevap

The argument is most strengthened by the statement showing that weather patterns and storm frequencies during the post-installation period were typical of previous years.
The conclusion attributes the 35 percent drop in outage durations directly to the smart meters' anomaly detection capability. The statement confirming that storm frequencies and weather patterns were typical of prior years eliminates an alternative explanation—namely, that a period of unusually mild weather reduced grid damage and caused the drop in outage times. By ruling out this key alternative cause, the statement significantly strengthens the causal connection proposed by municipal officials.

Adım Adım Çözüm

1
Identify the premise and conclusion of the argument
Premise: Outage durations dropped 35 percent after installing automated smart meters. Conclusion: Smart meter anomaly detection directly caused the reduction.
Understanding the precise causal claim is essential for evaluating statements that strengthen or weaken it.
2
Identify potential logical vulnerabilities in the causal claim
The main vulnerability is that an external factor (such as unusually mild weather or grid infrastructure repairs) might be the true cause of the reduced outage durations.
A standard way to strengthen a causal conclusion is to eliminate competing alternative causes.
3
Evaluate the options for a statement that addresses these vulnerabilities
The option noting that weather conditions were typical of previous years confirms that mild weather was not responsible for the decrease, thereby supporting the smart meters as the true cause.
Ruling out a plausible confounding variable increases the probability that the author's stated cause is correct.

Anahtar Kavram

Strengthening Causal Claims by Ruling Out Alternative Causes
Soru 2Soru

A municipal public transit agency recently installed high-definition security cameras in all city buses to decrease instances of vandalism. Following the installation, reported cases of vandalism aboard buses dropped by forty percent over a six-month period. Consequently, transit officials concluded that the visible presence of the new cameras successfully deterred potential vandals from committing crimes on the buses.

Which of the following statements, if true, provides the strongest support for the transit officials' conclusion?

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Cevap: During the same six-month period, rates of vandalism in nearby unmonitored public spaces across the city remained unchanged.

Cevap

The argument is most strongly supported by the statement indicating that during the same six-month period, rates of vandalism in nearby unmonitored public spaces across the city remained unchanged.
The correct answer strengthens the argument by ruling out an alternative cause. If vandalism in surrounding unmonitored areas remained constant while bus vandalism dropped, it becomes far more plausible that the presence of the cameras on the buses was the specific factor driving the decrease.

Adım Adım Çözüm

1
Identify the argument's premises and conclusion
Premise: Bus vandalism dropped 40% after camera installation. Conclusion: The cameras deterred potential vandals.
Understanding the precise logical gap (correlation vs. causation) is required to strengthen the argument.
2
Evaluate potential strengtheners
A valid strengthener will rule out alternative explanations for the decline in vandalism or confirm that the cameras specifically caused the decline.
Ruling out external factors (such as a broader trend in crime reduction) isolates the cameras as the probable cause.
3
Select the option that eliminates alternative causes
Showing that vandalism in unmonitored areas remained unchanged confirms that the drop was specific to the monitored buses, strengthening the conclusion.
This establishes a controlled comparison demonstrating that external citywide factors were not responsible for the reduction.

Anahtar Kavram

Ruling Out Alternative Causes in Causal Arguments
Tahmini Süre:1m 15s
Soru 3Soru

To reduce emergency room overcrowding, a city's health department opened several free outpatient clinics in low-income neighborhoods. Six months later, emergency room visits among low-income residents had increased by 12 percent. Consequently, municipal auditors concluded that the clinic program failed to reduce emergency room usage. Health administrators maintain, however, that the program is effectively accomplishing its intended goal.

Which of the following, if true, provides the strongest support for the health administrators' position?

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Cevap: During the same six-month period, an unusually severe flu outbreak caused emergency room visits to surge by 35 percent among residents in comparable neighborhoods lacking free clinics.

Cevap

The statement showing that emergency room visits surged by 35 percent in comparable neighborhoods without free clinics provides the strongest support for the administrators' position.
The option citing a 35 percent surge in emergency room visits in comparable neighborhoods without clinics establishes a critical counterfactual baseline. It demonstrates that a widespread external event (the severe flu outbreak) naturally increased emergency room reliance across the city. Because emergency room usage in neighborhoods with clinics only increased by 12 percent, the clinics successfully mitigated what would have been a much higher increase, thereby validating the administrators' claim of efficacy.

Adım Adım Çözüm

1
Deconstruct the argument structure
Premise 1: Clinics were opened to reduce emergency room usage. Premise 2: Emergency room visits increased by 12 percent after six months. Auditors' Conclusion: The program failed. Administrators' Conclusion: The program is effectively accomplishing its goal.
Identifying the disagreement between the auditors and administrators isolates what needs to be strengthened.
2
Identify the logical gap in the administrators' claim
The administrators must explain why a 12 percent increase in emergency room visits does not mean the program failed to reduce emergency room usage.
Strengthening an apparently contradictory claim requires establishing an unobserved baseline (what would have happened without the clinics).
3
Evaluate the choices for counterfactual support
Showing that visits rose by 35 percent in neighborhoods without clinics proves that the clinics held the increase to only 12 percent despite a major external surge factor (the flu outbreak).
Ruling out alternative explanations and establishing that the outcome would have been far worse without the intervention strongly supports efficacy.

Anahtar Kavram

Strengthening Arguments via Counterfactual Baseline Analysis
Soru 4Soru

Archaeologists examining slag remnants from an early Iron Age smelting site hypothesized that local artisans added roasted acacia pods to laterite iron ore as a flux to reduce furnace smelting temperatures. Chemical analysis of the slag revealed unusually high concentrations of calcium oxide and phosphorus pentoxide, elements minimal in raw laterite ore. Because adding organic flux allows laterite ore to melt at significantly lower temperatures achievable by basic charcoal furnaces, the researchers concluded that the presence of these compounds proves the deliberate inclusion of acacia pods in the smelting mixture.

Which of the following statements, if true, strengthen the archaeologists' argument? Select all that apply.

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Cevap: Subspecies of acacia trees native to the region yield seed pods whose ash contains calcium oxide and phosphorus pentoxide in proportions matching those detected in the smelting slag.; Charcoal residues from fuel wood excavated alongside the furnace lacked the elevated calcium and phosphorus levels found in the slag.

Cevap

The argument is strengthened by the statements establishing that acacia pod ash matches the chemical proportions in the slag and that fuel wood charcoal was not the source of the calcium and phosphorus.
The conclusion asserts that acacia seed pods were deliberately added to laterite ore based on chemical evidence in the slag. To strengthen this claim, additional evidence must tie these specific chemical markers directly to acacia pods or rule out alternative origins. The statement matching the calcium and phosphorus ratios of native acacia ash directly to the slag confirms the chemical identity of the additive. Simultaneously, the statement verifying that furnace fuel wood charcoal lacked these elements eliminates timber fuel as a competing source of the compounds, thereby ruling out a key alternative explanation.

Adım Adım Çözüm

1
Analyze the premise and conclusion of the argument.
Premise: Slag contains elevated calcium oxide and phosphorus pentoxide, which lower melting temperatures. Conclusion: Ancient artisans intentionally added acacia pods as flux.
Identifying the gap between detecting specific chemical compounds and attributing them exclusively to acacia pods.
2
Evaluate options for support mechanisms such as matching chemical signatures or ruling out alternative causes.
Demonstrating an exact proportion match with acacia ash directly supports acacia as the source, while showing fuel wood lacked these elements rules out fuel timber as an alternative source.
Both findings increase the probability that acacia pods specifically were added to the furnace.
3
Eliminate options that weaken the argument or address irrelevant background details.
Limestone deposits provide a competing explanation (weakening), tool durability addresses outcome rather than cause, and trade networks do not prove actual usage.
Distractors fail to reinforce the chemical connection between acacia pods and the slag.

Anahtar Kavram

Strengthening causal claims by confirming unique chemical signatures and eliminating alternative potential causes.
Soru 5Soru

Marine biologists studying migratory blue whales observed a significant increase in whale calf survival rates in the North Atlantic over the past decade. The researchers hypothesized that strict international regulations limiting commercial ship speeds in feeding zones caused this increase by reducing lethal vessel strikes. However, critics claim that ocean warming altered krill distribution, concentrating prey in protected zones where whales naturally feed away from major shipping lanes.

Which of the following statements, if true, provide support for the researchers' hypothesis regarding the cause of the increased calf survival rates? Select all that apply.

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Cevap: Acoustic tracking data shows that during the decade, vessel traffic volume remained constant, but average ship speeds decreased by 40 percent following regulation, coinciding directly with a sharp drop in documented calf collision injuries.; Satellite surveys revealed that krill density in non-regulated ocean zones increased at identical rates to krill density within the protected feeding zones over the ten-year period.

Cevap

The statements confirming a direct drop in collision injuries following speed reduction and demonstrating identical krill density across both regulated and unregulated zones both strengthen the researchers' hypothesis.
The researchers hypothesize that speed limits directly caused higher calf survival by preventing lethal ship strikes, while critics argue that krill shifts drew whales away from shipping lanes. The statement establishing that collision injuries dropped sharply after speed limits were introduced directly confirms the causal link between regulations and calf safety. The statement showing uniform krill growth across both regulated and unregulated waters refutes the critics' counter-hypothesis by demonstrating that prey distribution did not selectively concentrate whales away from shipping lanes. Together, these statements reinforce the primary argument.

Adım Adım Çözüm

1
Deconstruct the argument structure
Premise: Blue whale calf survival rates increased after ship speed regulations were enacted in feeding zones. Counter-argument: Ocean warming shifted krill distribution, drawing whales away from shipping lanes. Conclusion/Hypothesis: Speed limits caused the survival increase by reducing fatal vessel strikes.
Identifying the target hypothesis and competing counter-explanation is necessary to evaluate which statements support the hypothesis.
2
Evaluate statements for direct causal reinforcement or elimination of alternative causes
The statement documenting a sharp drop in collision injuries following speed reductions provides direct evidence of the hypothesized mechanism. The statement showing equal krill growth across regulated and unregulated zones refutes the alternative explanation that prey redistribution accounted for the survival change.
Strengthening an argument can occur either by providing direct empirical support for the mechanism or by ruling out plausible alternative causes.
3
Eliminate unsupportive or confounding statements
Statements introducing confounding causes (fishing gear moratorium), supporting nutritional vulnerability, or detailing shipping costs do not strengthen the specific hypothesis that speed regulations reduced vessel strikes.
Confounding factors weaken causal claims, while financial costs are logically irrelevant to the biological outcome.

Anahtar Kavram

Strengthening Causal Arguments by Confirming Causal Mechanisms and Eliminating Alternative Explanations
Soru 6Soru

Ecologists recently introduced a species of native predatory beetles into an agricultural valley to reduce the population of crop-damaging aphids. Over the following six months, aphid populations decreased dramatically across farms throughout the valley. The ecologists concluded that the introduction of the predatory beetles was the primary cause of the reduction in aphid populations.

Which of the following statements, if true, provide support for the ecologists' conclusion?

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Cevap: In neighboring valleys with identical weather patterns where the predatory beetles were not introduced, aphid populations remained unchanged during the same six-month period.; Field observations confirmed that the introduced beetles consumed large quantities of aphids and successfully established breeding populations on the valley's farms.

Cevap

The statements establishing that aphid populations remained unchanged in nearby control valleys and verifying that the introduced beetles actively preyed on aphids both strengthen the argument.
The conclusion asserts that introducing predatory beetles caused the aphid decline. The statement regarding neighboring valleys serves as a control group, showing that without beetles, aphid populations did not decline under identical weather conditions. The statement regarding field observations confirms the direct physical mechanism of predation. Both statements logically increase the likelihood that the beetles caused the decline.

Adım Adım Çözüm

1
Identify the conclusion and main causal relationship
The ecologists conclude that introducing predatory beetles caused the reduction in aphid populations.
Strengthening an argument requires supporting the proposed causal link between the premise (beetles introduced, aphids decreased) and conclusion.
2
Evaluate the option regarding neighboring control valleys
Showing that aphid levels stayed constant in neighboring valleys lacking beetles rules out regional weather or seasonal fluctuations as alternative causes.
Controlling for external variables strengthens a causal claim.
3
Evaluate the option regarding field observations of feeding behavior
Direct evidence of beetles consuming aphids and breeding confirms the expected biological mechanism.
Confirming that the cause actually produced the effect directly supports the conclusion.

Anahtar Kavram

Strengthening Arguments by Ruling Out Alternative Causes and Validating Causal Mechanisms
Soru 7Soru

A technology firm recently deployed an automated AI-driven customer support chatbot to resolve routine user inquiries. After three months of deployment, the firm reported a 25 percent decrease in total customer service operating expenditures and concluded that the implementation of the chatbot directly caused this reduction in costs. Which of the following, if true, provides the strongest support for the firm's conclusion?

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Cevap: During the three-month period, the total number of customer inquiries remained constant and no other cost-cutting measures were implemented within the customer service department.

Cevap

The argument is supported by establishing that customer inquiry volume was unchanged and no alternative cost-reduction actions occurred, ensuring the cost savings are attributable to the chatbot.
The conclusion asserts a direct causal link between implementing the chatbot and reducing customer service costs. The statement confirming that inquiry volume was unchanged and no other cost-reduction initiatives occurred effectively eliminates competing explanations for the cost drop, strengthening the author's causal claim.

Adım Adım Çözüm

1
Identify the conclusion and premises of the argument.
Premise: Operating expenses fell by 25% after deploying the chatbot. Conclusion: The chatbot directly caused the reduction in expenses.
Strengthening an argument requires identifying what logical gap exists between the premise and conclusion.
2
Evaluate potential gaps or alternative explanations.
The conclusion assumes that no external factors (such as decreased inquiry volume or staff cuts) caused the cost reduction.
Ruling out alternative explanations validates the causal connection made in the argument.
3
Select the choice that confirms key implicit assumptions or eliminates alternative causes.
Confirming that inquiry volume stayed constant and no other cost-cutting measures took place confirms the chatbot as the sole driver of the savings.
This directly increases the likelihood that the firm's conclusion is correct.

Anahtar Kavram

Strengthening Causal Claims by Ruling Out Alternative Causes
Soru 8Soru

To mitigate drought-related crop failures, a regional agricultural council launched a subsidy encouraging farmers to adopt no-till seeding, a technique that leaves crop residue intact to retain soil moisture. The council predicts that widespread adoption of no-till seeding will significantly increase overall regional grain yields during severe drought years. Opponents point out that no-till seeding requires specialized planting equipment that consumes twice as much fuel per acre as traditional tillage implements.

Which of the following statements, if true, strengthen the agricultural council's prediction regarding overall grain yields? Select all that apply.

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Cevap: In severe drought years, soil moisture retention is the single most decisive factor determining whether grain crops survive to harvest.; During previous droughts in neighboring regions with identical soil types, farms utilizing no-till seeding achieved forty percent higher grain yields than farms using traditional tillage.

Cevap

The statements establishing that soil moisture retention is the single most decisive factor during droughts and providing historical yield data from neighboring regions both strengthen the prediction.
The conclusion predicts higher grain yields during droughts due to moisture-retaining no-till seeding. The statement confirming that soil moisture retention is the single most decisive factor during droughts validates the central mechanism. Additionally, the statement offering empirical evidence of higher yields from neighboring regions under identical drought conditions provides direct supporting proof. Together, these statements significantly increase the probability of the conclusion being true.

Adım Adım Çözüm

1
Analyze the argument structure
Premise: No-till seeding retains soil moisture. Objection: Equipment uses more fuel. Conclusion: Widespread adoption will boost regional grain yields during drought years.
Deconstructing the argument isolates the core causal claim (soil moisture leads to higher yields during drought) from counter-arguments (fuel costs).
2
Evaluate statements for strengthening support
The statement identifying moisture retention as the decisive factor directly reinforces the core mechanism. The statement citing empirical yield increases in similar neighboring regions provides direct evidence supporting the conclusion.
A strengthening statement must increase the likelihood that the conclusion is true by supporting key premises, confirming mechanisms, or providing parallel evidence.
3
Eliminate irrelevant or weakening statements
The statement about subsidy inadequacy weakens adoption likelihood. The statements about tractor fuel efficiency and global grain market prices introduce out-of-scope factors.
Statements that weaken the premise or focus on market economics rather than physical crop yield fail to strengthen the conclusion.

Anahtar Kavram

Strengthening Arguments through Causal Validation and Empirical Analogy
Soru 9Soru

Archaeologists examining a 3,000-year-old Mediterranean shipwreck discovered several deposits of birch bark pitch, a compound historically used as a waterproof sealant. Because the pitch residues were found exclusively along the inner seams of the vessel's lower cargo hold rather than on the ceramic storage containers themselves, researchers concluded that the pitch was applied directly to seal the ship's wooden timbers during construction, rather than originating from leaked commercial cargo.

Which of the following, if true, most strengthens the researchers' argument?

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Cevap: Chemical analysis revealed that oxidation levels in the pitch residues match those resulting from open-air curing during vessel construction prior to seawater submersion, unlike pitch preserved inside airtight containers.

Cevap

Chemical analysis revealing that oxidation levels in the pitch match open-air curing during vessel construction provides the strongest support for the researchers' conclusion.
The option establishing that chemical oxidation levels in the pitch match open-air curing during ship construction directly supports the conclusion. It provides independent physical confirmation that the pitch was exposed to air during vessel assembly, distinct from pitch kept in airtight cargo containers.

Adım Adım Çözüm

1
Deconstruct the argument structure
Premise: Birch bark pitch residues were found only along inner hull seams, not on cargo containers. Conclusion: The pitch was applied as a sealant during ship construction, not leaked from cargo.
Identifying the gap between location of residue and the inferred cause (construction vs. cargo leakage) is required to strengthen the causal claim.
2
Evaluate the mechanism needed to strengthen the conclusion
An optimal strengthening statement will provide direct evidence confirming construction application or ruling out cargo leakage.
The conclusion relies on the unstated assumption that the physical state of the residue matches application during ship building rather than container storage.
3
Assess the correct option against the gap
Showing that the pitch underwent open-air oxidation characteristic of curing during ship assembly directly corroborates the construction hypothesis.
Differentiating the chemical signature of construction sealant from stored cargo pitch confirms the proposed cause.

Anahtar Kavram

Strengthening Causal Claims by Validating Data and Ruling Out Alternative Explanations
Tahmini Süre:2m 0s
Soru 10Soru

To combat regional power grid instability, energy directors plan to construct geothermal plants along an active fault line, where subterranean heat is greatest. Skeptics claim that drilling deep geothermal wells in seismically active areas risks triggering earthquakes that damage local infrastructure. However, the lead engineers contend that operating these geothermal facilities will net a decrease in major seismic hazards. They reason that extracting subterranean thermal energy cools surrounding rock formations, inducing thermal contraction that gradually dissipates accumulated tectonic tension via harmless micro-tremors rather than catastrophic faults. Which of the following, if true, provides the strongest support for the lead engineers' contention?

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Cevap: Geological monitoring of fault systems subjected to sustained thermal cooling indicates that frequent micro-tremors effectively vent stored strain, preventing the buildup of stress required to initiate major earthquakes.

Cevap

The argument is most strengthened by the statement confirming that geological monitoring of fault systems under thermal cooling shows frequent micro-tremors effectively vent stored strain, preventing major earthquakes.
The correct answer provides direct empirical validation for the engineers' underlying causal assumption. By confirming that sustained thermal cooling causes micro-tremors that safely vent accumulated strain and prevent large stress build-ups, it establishes that thermal extraction can indeed prevent catastrophic earthquakes, firmly supporting the conclusion.

Adım Adım Çözüm

1
Deconstruct the core argument
Premise: Extracting subterranean thermal energy causes thermal contraction in rock formations. Conclusion/Mechanism: Thermal contraction releases tectonic stress through harmless micro-tremors, reducing the overall risk of major destructive earthquakes.
Identifying the unproven assumption or causal bridge in the premise-to-conclusion path is necessary to evaluate potential strengtheners.
2
Identify the logical gap
The engineers assume that micro-tremors generated by thermal cooling actually succeed in dissipating enough accumulated stress to stop catastrophic earthquakes from occurring.
To strengthen the argument, an answer choice must confirm that this mechanism works as hypothesized in real fault systems.
3
Evaluate the choices against the logical gap
The option establishing that geological monitoring confirms micro-tremors from cooling vent stored strain and prevent stress buildup directly validates the engineers' causal claim.
Validating the underlying physical assumption directly increases the probability that the conclusion is true.

Anahtar Kavram

Strengthening Arguments by Validating Causal Mechanisms
Soru 11Soru

To mitigate orbital space debris, a space agency proposes requiring all low-Earth-orbit commercial satellites to deploy drag sails—expandable sheets designed to increase atmospheric drag and accelerate reentry—at the end of their operational lifespan. Analysts calculate that drag sails will reduce the average deorbit time of retired satellites from thirty years to less than three years. Therefore, requiring drag sails on all future low-Earth-orbit satellites will substantially lower the total frequency of orbital collisions in low-Earth orbit over the coming decade. Which of the following, if true, provides the strongest support for the space agency's conclusion?

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Cevap: The increase in a satellite's cross-sectional area during drag sail deployment creates a cumulative collision risk over three years that is significantly lower than the risk accumulated over thirty years of unassisted orbital decay.

Cevap

The argument is most strongly supported by the premise that the cumulative collision risk over a three-year drag-sail descent is significantly lower than the risk accumulated over thirty years of unassisted orbital decay.
The correct answer provides crucial support by eliminating a potential counter-argument. Because drag sails work by deploying large sheets, they increase a satellite's cross-sectional area, making it a larger target for orbital debris. If the increased target size made collisions much more likely during those three years, the net collision rate might stay the same or even increase. Establishing that the three-year cumulative risk is significantly lower than the thirty-year baseline risk confirms that the proposal achieves its stated goal.

Adım Adım Çözüm

1
Deconstruct the argument into core components
Premise: Drag sails shorten satellite deorbit time from 30 years to under 3 years by increasing surface area and atmospheric drag. Conclusion: Mandating drag sails will substantially lower the total frequency of low-Earth orbit collisions over the next decade.
Isolating the premise and conclusion reveals the underlying assumption that shorter deorbit time translates directly into fewer total collisions.
2
Identify the central assumption and logical vulnerability
The argument assumes that deploying a drag sail—which drastically expands the physical size (cross-sectional area) of the satellite—does not inadvertently increase the risk of collision per year so dramatically that it offsets the benefit of a shorter timeframe.
A larger object presents a bigger target for space debris, so reducing time in orbit helps only if the increased size does not create an equal or greater net danger.
3
Evaluate which choice validates this assumption or rules out the key vulnerability
The statement confirming that the three-year risk with a drag sail is significantly lower than the thirty-year risk of unassisted decay directly confirms that the net collision probability actually decreases.
By verifying that the increased cross-sectional area does not outweigh the benefit of reduced orbital lifespan, this statement provides necessary support for the author's claim.

Anahtar Kavram

Strengthening by ruling out an alternative counter-mechanism or validating an implicit net-benefit assumption.
Soru 12Soru

Paleoclimatologists analyzing mineral deposits in a subterranean cave network near an ancient settlement observed a sharp drop in trace isotope ratios between 1200 BCE and 1150 BCE, a metric that correlates with regional rainfall. The researchers concluded that a severe drought caused the sudden abandonment of the settlement during this timeframe. Skeptical historians argue instead that the abandonment was driven by the simultaneous collapse of regional trade networks.

Which of the following statements, if true, provide additional support for the paleoclimatologists' conclusion? Select all that apply.

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Cevap: Neighboring agricultural settlements that produced all their own food independently of regional trade networks were also suddenly abandoned during the same fifty-year window.; Soil analysis of local farm plots reveals that crop yields fell to zero due to severe ground desiccation prior to any recorded decline in regional trade volume.

Cevap

The statements confirming that non-trading neighboring settlements were also abandoned and that soil desiccation destroyed crops prior to trade declines both strengthen the paleoclimatologists' conclusion.
The correct selections strengthen the paleoclimatologists' argument in two distinct ways. The statement observing that non-trading neighboring settlements also suffered sudden collapse eliminates the competing hypothesis (trade network failure) as the sole driver of abandonment. The statement showing that soil desiccation destroyed local crops prior to any trade decline establishes that drought impacts preceded economic shifts, reinforcing the drought as the root cause.

Adım Adım Çözüm

1
Identify the main conclusion and opposing argument in the passage.
Conclusion: Severe drought caused the settlement's abandonment. Opposing view: Collapse of regional trade networks caused the abandonment.
To strengthen a causal argument facing an alternative explanation, one must either bolster the primary cause or rule out the competing cause.
2
Evaluate statements for evidence that eliminates the alternative cause or validates the primary cause.
The statement about neighboring self-sufficient settlements demonstrates that abandonment occurred even when trade reliance was zero, ruling out trade collapse as the necessary cause. The statement about soil desiccation establishing agricultural failure before trade declines validates the chronological priority of the drought.
Eliminating alternative explanations and confirming temporal precedence are standard logical methods for strengthening a causal claim.
3
Eliminate options that weaken, provide out-of-scope details, or confuse temporal correlation.
The statement regarding intact cistern water reserves weakens the drought hypothesis. Statements regarding distant cave systems and trade council leadership are logically irrelevant.
Distractors often reverse the required logical direction or introduce non-probative contextual facts.

Anahtar Kavram

Strengthening Causal Arguments by Ruling Out Alternative Explanations and Establishing Temporal Precedence
Soru 13Soru

Linguists analyzing the evolution of early writing systems hypothesized that the shift from pictographic symbols to abstract phonographic scripts was driven primarily by the economic necessity of recording complex trade transactions quickly. As commercial networks expanded across ancient Mesopotamia, scribes required symbols that could be impressed rapidly into clay rather than detailed pictorial representations. Therefore, researchers concluded that trade volume, rather than religious ritual or administrative governance, was the sole catalyst for script abstraction.

Which of the following statements, if true, provide support for the researchers' conclusion regarding the primary driver of script abstraction? Select all that apply.

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Cevap: In ancient regions where religious temples managed resource distribution without long-distance commercial trade, pictographic scripts remained unabstracted for centuries longer than in active commercial hubs.; Archival clay tablets reveal that the speed required to impress abstract phonographic symbols was significantly higher than that for detailed pictographs, allowing scribes to complete a higher volume of transaction records per day.

Cevap

The argument is strengthened by the statements establishing that script abstraction failed to occur in non-commercial temple settings and that abstract symbols provided a measurable speed advantage for recording trade transactions.
The conclusion asserts that trade volume was the primary driver of script abstraction, as opposed to religious or administrative factors. The statement observing that pictographic scripts remained unabstracted in non-commercial temple environments supports the argument by demonstrating that non-trade factors were insufficient on their own to cause abstraction. Additionally, the statement confirming that abstract symbols significantly increased scribal recording speed provides empirical backing for the premise that the shift was motivated by the need for rapid trade recordkeeping.

Adım Adım Çözüm

1
Identify the core premises and conclusion of the argument.
Premise: Expanding Mesopotamian trade networks created a need to record transactions quickly in clay. Conclusion: Trade volume, rather than religious ritual or administrative governance, was the sole catalyst for script abstraction.
To evaluate strengthening factors, one must isolate the exact conclusion and the proposed causal mechanism.
2
Evaluate statements that eliminate alternative causes or validate core assumptions.
The statement regarding religious temples demonstrates that without commercial trade, non-trade governance did not trigger abstraction (eliminating an alternative cause). The statement regarding scribal speed verifies that abstract scripts actually satisfied the operational need for faster trade recordkeeping.
Ruling out alternative causes and confirming underlying operational mechanisms logically increases the probability that the author's conclusion is correct.
3
Eliminate choices that weaken the argument or introduce irrelevant background details.
The statement showing administrative reforms causing abstraction weakens the argument by introducing a counter-example. The statements regarding apprenticeship length and surviving tablet counts are out of scope or fail to address causality.
Options that undermine the conclusion or present neutral facts do not provide support.

Anahtar Kavram

Strengthening Causal Arguments by Ruling Out Alternative Causes and Validating Implicit Assumptions
Soru 14Soru

To restore seventeenth-century canvas paintings damaged by ambient humidity, conservators introduced a synthetic non-polar solvent designed to remove degraded varnish without penetrating water-soluble paint layers. Five years post-treatment, paintings restored with the non-polar solvent exhibited a forty percent lower incidence of structural paint-cracking than paintings restored using traditional aqueous cleaning solutions. The lead conservator concluded that the non-polar solvent successfully prevents paint-cracking by leaving the moisture content of the underlying canvas fibers unperturbed. Which of the following, if true, most strengthens the lead conservator's argument?

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Cevap: Paintings subjected to traditional aqueous cleaning solutions whose canvas fibers were artificially stabilized against moisture loss prior to treatment showed paint-cracking rates identical to those treated with the non-polar solvent.

Cevap

The correct option is the one stating that paintings treated with aqueous solutions whose canvas fibers were artificially stabilized against moisture loss showed cracking rates identical to those treated with the non-polar solvent.
The conclusion asserts a specific causal relationship: the non-polar solvent prevents paint-cracking because it leaves the moisture content of the canvas fibers unperturbed (whereas aqueous solutions disrupt it). The correct choice provides classic counterfactual support: when canvas fibers in paintings treated with aqueous solutions are pre-stabilized to prevent moisture loss, their cracking rates drop to match those of the non-polar solvent group. This demonstrates that moisture perturbation was indeed the variable responsible for the higher cracking rate, directly reinforcing the lead conservator's conclusion.

Adım Adım Çözüm

1
Deconstruct the argument into premise and conclusion.
Premise: Paintings restored with a non-polar solvent had 40% less cracking after 5 years than those restored with traditional aqueous solutions. Conclusion: The non-polar solvent prevents cracking specifically by leaving the moisture content of the canvas fibers unperturbed.
Identifying the explicit causal link proposed by the author (unperturbed moisture content -> reduced cracking) is essential for evaluating candidate strengtheners.
2
Identify the required strengthening mechanism.
To strengthen a specific causal claim, we can confirm the causal link by showing that when the proposed cause (moisture perturbation) is removed from the control group (aqueous treatment), the negative effect (cracking) disappears.
Showing that controlling moisture loss in the aqueous group eliminates the difference in cracking proves that moisture disruption was indeed the underlying cause.
3
Evaluate the choices against this logical requirement.
The option describing stabilized canvas fibers demonstrates that when moisture loss is prevented during aqueous treatment, cracking drops to match the non-polar solvent level, solidly confirming the conservator's hypothesis.
This controlled counterfactual isolates the exact causal mechanism asserted in the conclusion.

Anahtar Kavram

Strengthening a Causal Argument via Controlled Counterfactual Evidence
Soru 15Soru

Geochemists analyzing drill core samples from subglacial Lake Mercer in Antarctica discovered elevated concentrations of dissolved methane alongside specialized methanotrophic bacteria. Because these bacterial populations exhibit peak metabolic rates strictly within thermal gradients matching geothermal vents detected beneath the ice sheet, researchers concluded that geothermal activity, rather than surface organic runoff trapped during ice sheet formation, is the primary energy source sustaining the microbial ecosystem in the subglacial lake. Which of the following, if true, most strengthens the researchers' conclusion?

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Cevap: Subglacial lakes in the region that lack geothermal activity contain trapped surface organic runoff comparable to Lake Mercer but show virtually no dissolved methane or active methanotrophic bacteria.

Cevap

Subglacial lakes in the region that lack geothermal activity contain trapped surface organic runoff comparable to Lake Mercer but show virtually no dissolved methane or active methanotrophic bacteria.
The correct answer provides a comparative control scenario. By showing that other subglacial lakes with trapped surface organic runoff but no geothermal activity fail to produce elevated methane or bacterial activity, it rules out surface runoff as the primary cause and confirms that geothermal activity is the key driving factor.

Adım Adım Çözüm

1
Identify the core argument structure
Premise: Methanotrophic bacteria in Lake Mercer thrive within thermal gradients matching geothermal vents. Conclusion: Geothermal activity, rather than trapped surface organic runoff, is the primary energy source sustaining the ecosystem.
Isolating the conclusion and the competing alternative explanation (surface organic runoff) is necessary to determine what evidence strengthens the claim.
2
Evaluate the strengthening requirement
To strengthen the claim that geothermal activity (and not surface runoff) is the source, evidence should demonstrate that surface runoff alone is insufficient to produce methane/bacteria without geothermal vents.
Ruling out an alternative cause or demonstrating a control case where the alternative cause exists without the effect reinforces a causal argument.
3
Assess the correct choice against alternative explanations
Showing that nearby subglacial lakes with surface runoff but no geothermal vents lack methane and bacteria demonstrates that surface runoff alone cannot sustain the ecosystem, thereby strengthening the geothermal conclusion.
Establishing a comparative control group isolates geothermal activity as the critical missing factor.

Anahtar Kavram

Strengthening a Causal Argument by Ruling Out an Alternative Cause
Soru 16Soru

Ecologists observed that in coastal pine forests where native beetle populations recently declined, a species of parasitic fungus began infecting over 40 percent of mature pine trees. The ecologists hypothesized that the beetle larvae, which burrow into pine bark, deposit a chemical secretion that inhibits fungal spore germination, thereby protecting the trees from infection.

Which of the following findings, if true, would provide support for the ecologists' hypothesis? Select all that apply.

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Cevap: Laboratory tests confirm that synthetic versions of the chemical secretion produced by beetle larvae inhibit fungal spore germination at concentrations typical in pine bark.; In nearby coastal pine forests where beetle larvae populations remained stable, fungal infection rates among mature pine trees were significantly lower than 40 percent.

Cevap

The argument is strengthened by demonstrating that the larval secretion actively inhibits fungal germination in controlled laboratory conditions and by showing that forests retaining stable beetle populations maintained lower fungal infection rates.
The argument proposes a causal mechanism: beetle larvae protect trees from fungal infection via an inhibitory chemical secretion. The statement verifying that the larval secretion chemically inhibits fungal germination in lab tests directly confirms the plausibility of this mechanism. Additionally, the statement observing lower infection rates in forests with stable beetle populations provides control data showing that beetle presence correlates with protection from the fungus.

Adım Adım Çözüm

1
Identify the core conclusion and proposed mechanism
Conclusion/Hypothesis: Beetle larvae protect pine trees because their chemical secretion inhibits fungal spore germination.
Strengthening questions require finding statements that increase the likelihood that this specific mechanism is correct.
2
Evaluate empirical verification of the causal agent
The finding confirming that synthetic larval secretion inhibits fungal spore germination at typical bark concentrations provides direct experimental support for the proposed biological mechanism.
Validating that the biological agent possesses the requisite chemical property confirms a critical underlying assumption.
3
Evaluate comparative control evidence
The finding that forests with stable beetle populations maintained significantly lower infection rates serves as comparative control data.
Showing that the effect (low fungal infection) persists where the cause (beetle larvae) remains active reinforces the causal connection.

Anahtar Kavram

Strengthening Arguments via Mechanism Validation and Comparative Controls
Soru 17Soru

To alleviate traffic congestion during peak hours, municipal officials implemented a high-occupancy toll lane system on a major arterial highway, charging single-occupant vehicles a variable toll while allowing carpools free access. Eight months after implementation, average commute times along the highway corridor decreased by 14 percent. City administrators concluded that the toll policy successfully motivated solo drivers to switch to carpooling.

Which of the following statements, if true, provide support for the city administrators' conclusion? Select all that apply.

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Cevap: Commuter surveys conducted six months after the policy launch revealed a significant increase in the average number of passengers per private vehicle traveling on the highway during peak hours.; Regional transportation records show a sharp increase in shared ride-matching app registrations paired with origin-destination data confirming increased shared vehicle trips along the highway corridor.

Cevap

The statements confirming an increase in average vehicle occupancy during peak hours and documenting a sharp rise in shared vehicle trips along the highway corridor both strengthen the argument.
The conclusion asserts that the toll policy caused commute times to drop by encouraging single drivers to carpool. Evidence showing increased average passenger counts per vehicle during peak hours directly validates that carpooling increased. Similarly, data showing higher shared ride-matching app registrations and verified shared trips along the corridor directly supports the proposed causal link between the policy and commuter carpooling behavior.

Adım Adım Çözüm

1
Identify the conclusion and underlying causal claim.
Conclusion: The high-occupancy toll policy successfully motivated solo drivers to switch to carpooling, causing the 14% decrease in commute times.
To strengthen a causal conclusion, evidence must either confirm the proposed mechanism or rule out alternative causes.
2
Evaluate option choices for direct support or corroborating data.
The statement regarding higher passenger counts per vehicle confirms that carpooling increased. The statement detailing increased shared ride registrations and trips along the corridor confirms that commuters actively transitioned to shared rides on that highway.
Both findings directly confirm the central mechanism assumed by the conclusion.
3
Evaluate incorrect options for alternative causes or irrelevancy.
Parallel lane expansion and widespread remote work offer alternative causes for lower traffic, which weakens the conclusion. Toll revenue collection is irrelevant to commuter transit choices.
Statements that introduce confounding causes undermine the author's claim.

Anahtar Kavram

Strengthening Arguments
Soru 18Soru

A regional logistics firm installed real-time thermal monitoring sensors on its refrigerated delivery fleet to reduce perishable food spoilage during long-distance transport. During a six-month trial, fleet vehicles equipped with these sensors experienced a 35 percent reduction in cargo spoilage compared to unequipped vehicles operating on identical routes. The operations manager concluded that real-time temperature alerts directly prevented spoilage by enabling drivers to adjust cooling settings immediately upon detecting system malfunctions.

Which of the following, if true, provides the strongest support for the operations manager's conclusion?

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Cevap: Vehicles equipped with the thermal sensors experienced mechanical refrigeration failures at the exact same rate as unequipped vehicles during the trial period.

Cevap

The statement showing that sensor-equipped vehicles experienced mechanical refrigeration failures at the exact same rate as unequipped vehicles.
The conclusion asserts a direct causal link: real-time thermal alerts caused a reduction in spoilage by allowing drivers to intervene. A classic way to strengthen a causal claim is to rule out alternative explanations. If sensor-equipped trucks suffered mechanical refrigeration failures at the exact same rate as unequipped trucks, the lower spoilage in the sensor group cannot be attributed to fewer baseline mechanical breakdowns. Eliminating this confounder significantly reinforces the manager's conclusion.

Adım Adım Çözüm

1
Deconstruct the argument into premise and conclusion.
Premise: Sensor-equipped trucks had 35% less cargo spoilage on identical routes. Conclusion: Sensor alerts directly caused the reduction by letting drivers fix cooling issues immediately.
Identifying the explicit conclusion isolates the causal claim that must be supported.
2
Identify potential logical gaps or alternative explanations.
An alternative explanation could be that the sensor-equipped trucks were simply newer or broke down less often than unequipped trucks.
To strengthen a causal argument, ruling out plausible alternative causes reinforces the proposed cause.
3
Evaluate the choices to find the one that eliminates an alternative cause or validates the causal mechanism.
Confirming that mechanical breakdown rates were identical across both groups eliminates the possibility that fewer breakdowns accounted for the lower spoilage, leaving driver intervention via alerts as the primary cause.
Ruling out alternative explanations directly increases the likelihood that the author's stated conclusion is correct.

Anahtar Kavram

Ruling Out Alternative Causes in Causal Arguments
Tahmini Süre:1m 40s
Soru 19Soru

Urban planners monitored residential neighborhoods that planted dense rows of broadleaf deciduous trees along high-traffic arterial avenues. Over a five-year period, these neighborhoods experienced a 14 percent reduction in ambient daytime temperatures and a significant decrease in heat-related emergency room admissions compared to adjacent neighborhoods that installed reflective cool roofs. The planners concluded that the temperature reduction achieved by the tree canopies was directly responsible for the decline in heat-related emergency room visits. Which of the following statements, if true, provide additional support for the urban planners' conclusion? Select all that apply.

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Cevap: The decline in heat-related emergency room admissions in tree-canopied neighborhoods occurred almost exclusively during peak afternoon hours when canopy shade and transpiration produced their greatest cooling effect.; Household air-conditioning capacity and resident access to emergency healthcare services remained equivalent across all studied neighborhoods throughout the five-year evaluation.

Cevap

The argument is strengthened both by establishing that emergency room visit declines coincided precisely with the peak hours of canopy cooling and by confirming that confounding factors like indoor air conditioning and healthcare access were equal across all neighborhoods.
The correct selections strengthen the argument in two complementary ways. First, showing that emergency room reductions occurred specifically during peak afternoon hours aligns the timing of the effect with the timing of maximum canopy cooling, reinforcing the causal link. Second, confirming that air-conditioning access and medical availability were uniform across neighborhoods rules out major potential confounding variables, ensuring the cooling effect itself accounts for the outcome.

Adım Adım Çözüm

1
Identify the core argument structure
Premise: Tree-canopied neighborhoods saw lower ambient temperatures and fewer heat-related ER visits than cool-roof neighborhoods. Conclusion: The canopy's cooling effect caused the decrease in heat-related ER visits.
Isolating the premise and conclusion clarifies the causal claim that must be strengthened.
2
Evaluate statements for strengthening mechanisms
Confirming that health improvements happened precisely when cooling was highest strengthens the causal link. Ruling out alternative explanations (such as baseline differences in air conditioning or healthcare access) confirms that the cooling effect was the decisive factor.
Causal conclusions are strengthened when alternate causes are eliminated or when precise dose-response timing is verified.
3
Eliminate options that weaken or introduce irrelevant information
Options introducing demographic shifts or installation noise provide alternative causes for the outcome difference (weakening the argument), while winter leaf shedding is irrelevant to summer heat emergencies.
Distractors often present alternate explanations or out-of-scope facts.

Anahtar Kavram

Strengthening Causal Arguments
Soru 20Soru

Agricultural researchers monitored tomato farms in a semi-arid region that adopted satellite-guided automated drip irrigation systems. Over three harvest seasons, farms utilizing the automated system reported a 25 percent reduction in water usage alongside a 15 percent increase in crop yields compared to their previous yields under manual drip irrigation. The researchers concluded that the automated system's precise real-time adjustments to soil moisture levels were directly responsible for the increased crop yields.

Which of the following, if true, most strengthens the researchers' argument?

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Cevap: Tomato farms in the same region that maintained manual drip irrigation over the three harvest seasons saw no increase in crop yields despite experiencing identical weather patterns.

Cevap

The argument is most strengthened by the finding that neighboring tomato farms retaining manual drip irrigation experienced no yield increase under identical weather conditions.
The correct answer provides a control comparison. By establishing that farms in the same region using manual irrigation under identical weather conditions saw no yield increase, it rules out external factors like favorable weather or climate shifts, thereby strongly supporting the claim that the automated system was the cause of the increased yields.

Adım Adım Çözüm

1
Deconstruct the argument into premise and conclusion.
Premise: Farms using satellite-guided automated drip irrigation reduced water use by 25% and increased yield by 15% relative to their past manual drip baseline. Conclusion: The automated system's real-time soil moisture adjustments directly caused the yield increase.
Identifying the explicit causal claim is necessary to determine what evidence is required to reinforce it.
2
Identify potential vulnerabilities in the causal reasoning.
The argument assumes that no unobserved external factors (such as favorable weather, fertilizer improvements, or pest reduction) were responsible for the yield increase during those three seasons.
Strengthening a causal argument frequently involves providing a control group or ruling out plausible alternative causes.
3
Evaluate the choices to find the statement that eliminates alternative causes.
The observation that regional farms keeping manual systems experienced no yield increase under identical weather confirms that regional environmental factors alone do not explain the yield gains, isolating the automated system as the key variable.
Providing counterfactual evidence strengthens the probability that the author's stated cause is correct.

Anahtar Kavram

Strengthening Causal Claims via Control Groups and Alternative Cause Elimination
Tahmini Süre:1m 30s
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Strengthening Arguments Alıştırma Soruları — GRE General Test | Examkin